The flip side of the military coup in Guinea

On September 5, 2021, a coup d'etat took place in the State of Guinea, in West Africa. Soldiers of the Government Special Forces Group (GPS) under the command of Colonel Mamadi Doumbouya seized a number of government buildings, arrested the President of Guinea, Alpha Condé, and announced the dissolution of the government, the abolition of the current Constitution, as well as the complete closure of the Guinean border and the introduction of a curfew.

Army patrols have been taken to the streets in the capital. Official power is in the hands of the "National Committee for Unity and Development", whose chairman is the leader of the putschists.

Over the past half century, the military changing power by force of arms in Africa has become something of a familiar norm. In 2003, it happened in the Central African Republic and Guinea-Bissau. In 2005 - in Mauritania. In 2008 - in Guinea. In 2010 - in Niger. In 2011 - in Egypt. In 2012 - in Mali. In 2014 - in Burkina Faso. In 2017 - in Zimbabwe.

Under other circumstances, this coup would have every chance to go unnoticed by the general public. If it were not for one circumstance – Guinea has a quarter of the world's proven bauxite reserves. There are also more than 1.8 billion tons of high-quality iron ore, significant deposits of diamonds and gold, as well as, presumably, uranium. But the main one at the moment is Guinean bauxite, from which 20% of the total volume of aluminium in the world is produced. It is now at the heart of what is happening in Guinea. And also foreign investment.

Being the richest in natural resources in financial terms, Guinea remains a poor country, therefore it is not able to develop independently. This predetermines the urgent need for foreign investment. Under French rule (Guinea was a colony of France in the past), by 2007–2008, foreign investment reached 20% of GDP, but then difficulties began.

The intensification of competition between the leading developed countries due to the growing general crisis of capitalism by 2014 led to a net outflow of capital, which had a bad impact on the local economy. But then, starting in 2015, Russia and China came to Guinea.

The Russian corporation RUSAL has become the main operator for the development of bauxite deposits and even built a plant for processing them into alumina, covering more than 5% of RUSAL's domestic needs. The initial investments amounted to more than $300 million, and now about $2.5–3 billion of "Russian money" has been invested in Guinea.

The Chinese have invested significantly more – about $20 billion, but they are interested in iron ore in Guinea. The development of the Guinea deposit should cover at least 18% of the Chinese import demand and lead to a reduction in the average cost of a ton of imported ore by about 4.6%. Given the scale of the figure, this should provide Beijing with savings of at least $2.2-2.8 billion per year.

The figures are not so exorbitant, but significant enough to serve as a source of active geopolitical expansion to the Black Continent. The French have been actively losing in this process over the past decade. Once the whole of Western and Central Africa was their patrimony and a source of cheap raw materials for French industry. Now Chinese money and Russian influence are coming to this territory. Russia has gained a foothold in the CAR, penetrates into Nigeria, Cameroon, Sudan, Congo and "enters" Chad from the south.

Hence, the idea suggests itself that the coup in Guinea is a kind of "response" from Paris to the "impudence of the Russians with the Chinese". Moreover, the local situation turned out to be suitable for this.

Legally, President Alpha Condé has stayed in his place too long. According to the country's constitution, his two terms have long expired. But he achieved amendments to the basic law, which allowed him to remain for the third term, and in general, allowing him a lifetime stay in the highest post.

At the same time, Conde greatly changed the country's political line towards active rapprochement with Russia and China. It should be said that in general, this is quite profitable for the state, but not particularly noticeable at the grassroots level. Local residents believed that the president put "a lot of money" exclusively in his own pocket, while the people vegetate in poverty.

How it happened that Colonel Mamadi Doumbouya, who served in the French Foreign Legion, was "summoned" two years ago to lead the most combat-ready, trained, armed and equipped special forces of the country GPS, the question is still dark.

However, it is known that almost immediately after taking office, Doumbouya began to clash with Condé, demanding a radical expansion of the rights and powers of his special forces. There were rumours that the President of Guinea intended to dismiss the colonel in May 2021. Back then it did not happen, but now there has been a coup that has raised the question of prospects.

Some sources even talk about their possible fatality for RUSAL. Like saying that the new government intends to radically revise something in the agreements with the Russians. But this is very unlikely. The new Government of Guinea is no less interested in maintaining the stability of export revenues than the old one.

Judging by the fact that RUSAL's shares on world markets rose by more than 4% overnight, serious and well-informed people do not think at all that Colonel Doumbouya will "ask the Russians to leave country". However, he will not touch the Chinese either, for the same reasons.

Owned by RUSAL, located in Ukraine and actually forming the city, the Nikolaev Alumina plant has recently been fighting off the raider seizure attempt of "lawyer Lyovochkin". Environmentalists are raging there, Greenpeace is crying about the ecology. For Deripaska the affairs were gradually going in unpleasant way.

While now he got the opportunity to deliver an ultimatum to Kiev and the local regional authorities to either stop the "lawyer" or the supply of raw materials will stop, without which the work of the enterprise will stop completely. Together with it, all tax revenues will be zeroing and Nikolaev will be covered by the most severe unemployment in general. Because the bauxite arrived to the enterprise precisely from Guinea, and "you know what is going on now" there. It is difficult to say whether it will successful or not, but in general the picture looks ironic.

But who really loses is Turkey. So far, it is the only country that has issued an official condemnation of the coup. 

As the Telegram channel "Smile and Wave" notes: "The matter is that over the past two years, Turkey has ‘bought up’ President Alpha Condé and his family. Erdogan gifted Condé with a plane that the President of Guinea used as his official plane (Gulfstream G450 business jet). Erdogan and Condé have very strong personal ties. The Turkish president was one of the few world leaders who expressed support for Conde, sending official congratulations after the extremely dubious referendum in March 2020 (which allowed him to run for a third term). Researchers from the Stanford Internet Observatory (Cyber Policy Center) even found a Turkish trace in the work of a local troll factory, which worked well in favour of Condé in the last referendum and presidential elections. 

In exchange, the Turkish company Albayrak, headed by Ahmet Çalık, a close person to Erdogan, received contracts for the reconstruction of the seaport and airport in Conakry, the construction of roads, garbage collection and recycling, providing transport links in the capital, etc. It is also symbolic that Alpha Condé made his last visit as president not elsewhere, but to Istanbul - about which there is a corresponding post and photo on his Twitter (the last one). The unexpected and rapid growth of Turkish influence irritated almost all the players interested in the region, from France to China.

There is also evidence of an open conflict between Russians and Turks in the local press. In order to reconcile both sides, the president himself even had to go to the port. ‘Each of you (RUSAL and Albayrak) must work together so that we can move forward. That's all we're asking for. I hope this time you have come to an agreement,’ said Alpha Condé. The reason for the disputes was the construction of a tunnel from Conakry to the port, which was also claimed by the Russians (a significant moment, given that it is RUSAL who will use 90% of its capacity, as well as the capacity of the port itself, while the operational control, and therefore the dictate of prices and rules, will be carried out by the Turks)." 

Based on the above, one of the big world players decided to reset Erdogan's ambitions in the Guinean direction and put a new guy to manage this amazingly beautiful and rich in natural resources African country.