A year of Joe Biden's rule: results and prospects

When Joe Biden took office as the 46th President of the United States on January 20, 2021, the American media positioned him as an experienced leader who would cope with the COVID-19 pandemic, be able to heal the American nation from the division that was emphasised under Donald Trump, and restore the United States’ reputation as a leader on the international stage. A year has passed, and now we can sum up the first results of Joe Biden's rule.

Internal policy

The promise to heal the American nation from division and unite its citizens under the wise leadership of Joe Biden turned out to be mere chatter. After taking the White House presidency, Joe Biden signed a record 40 executive orders in 100 days, mostly canceling the policies of the previous president. The country's political course swung sharply to the left, giving various kinds of preferences to minorities. In particular, Joe Biden's decree allowed transgender people to enter women's sports.

During the year, the US Department of Education suggested new priorities in education, to change "attitudes towards systemic racism, emphasising the urgency of improving racial equality across society”. "Critical race theory" began to be promoted in schools, the central tenet of which is that white racism, not freedom, was the foundation of the formation of the United States. The "great founding fathers" of the United States are no longer a model of wisdom and nobility, but are now oppressors of the black population.

"Critical race theory" has created yet another rift in American society, with ordinary parents protesting that their children should be blamed for being born white. US Attorney General Merrick B. Garland prepared a special memorandum, according to which the FBI is instructed to monitor particularly active parents. There is a new national strategy for countering domestic terrorism. The United States places special emphasis on extremists who promote white supremacy.

The "critical racial theory" issue, raised on the flag of struggle by the Republican Party, brought an unexpected victory to the Republican Virginia governor candidate. It became a cold shower for the Democratic Party and the realisation that the imposed progressive ideology is not yet taking root in American society. According to surveys, 49% of Americans believe that Joe Biden only contributes to a split in society.

Joe Biden not only failed to unite the American nation, but also allowed a serious split in his own party. Only by breaking the factional agreement between the centrists and progressives of the Democratic Party was it possible to adopt an infrastructure plan worth $1.2 trillion.

The plan for "social spending", which included money for "green energy", could not be adopted even after Joe Biden's personal meetings with the leaders of the factions, and he did not have enough personal authority. Joe Biden had to go to the 26th Climate Conference in Glasgow empty-handed, having suffered serious image damage in the international arena.

The confrontation within the Democratic Party over the "social spending" plan continues to this day, although its size has already been reduced from $3.5 to 1.7 trillion. In addition, Joe Biden failed to fulfil his campaign promise to pass the police reform law that BLM activists and the rest of the progressive public demanded, amid hysteria after the death of African-American George Floyd.

The adoption of the law on unified federal electoral legislation has been suspended. This bill is fundamental for the Democratic Party, as it allows us to level out the latest legislative initiatives of Republicans at the state level to tighten the voting procedure. The Democratic Party wants to increase the possibilities of early and remote voting, and most importantly-voting without presenting an identity card.

The COVID-19 pandemic

At the beginning of 2021, the main problem that worried ordinary Americans, of course, was the COVID-19 pandemic. During the presidential race, Joe Biden said that Donald Trump is not worthy to be president, allowing the death of more than 200,000 Americans from the pandemic.

The main criticism of Donald Trump's opponents during the pandemic came down to his incompetence and "disregard for science”. The central American media (almost all controlled by the US Democratic Party) stated that Joe Biden would strictly follow science and coordinate the process of fighting COVID-19 at the federal level. However, a year later, Joe Biden had to transfer the issue of combating COVID-19 back to the state level. At the same time, the cost of fighting the disease doubled in size, compared to the first year of the pandemic.

Back in July 2021, Joe Biden announced that the US is starting to return to normal after the coronavirus pandemic. However, in 2021 alone, about 390,000 people died from COVID-19 in the United States. He explained this situation by saying that "no one expected the appearance of a delta variant" of the coronavirus, although, of course, scientists warned about the possibility of new strains of the virus.

On September 9, 2021, Joe Biden announced mandatory vaccination of government employees and employees of private enterprises with a staff of more than 100 people. This demand resulted in a protest and the dismissal of some firefighters, police officers and medical professionals who do not want to be vaccinated. On January 14, the US Supreme Court almost completely overturned this requirement of Joe Biden, leaving the need for mandatory vaccination only for hospital doctors who receive state funding.

The latest demands of the Joe Biden administration to wear masks and pass tests caused social exclusion, since there are not enough tests and people have to stand in huge queues for testing. To the head of the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), even he had to justify himself publicly in response to criticism of her department, for inconsistent recommendations to combat COVID-19. On January 10, 2022, more than a million cases were recorded per day, and therefore only 45% Americans approve of Joe Biden's efforts to fight coronavirus.

Economy and social sphere

With the onset of COVID-19 and lockdowns, many US businesses have closed or reduced their opening hours. At the beginning of 2020, employers cut more than 22 million jobs, and the unemployment rate soared to 14.8%. Thanks to trillion-dollar government spending, about 18.5 million jobs have been restored so far, which is 3.9 million less than previously.

However, Joe Biden's demands to businesses about mandatory vaccination had a negative impact on the American economy, so some people were simply not allowed to work. For the first week of 2022 3% of the total US workforce did not go to work due to COVID-19.

Another paradoxical point is that a record breaking 4.5 million Americans quit their jobs in November 2021, they did not drop out of the labour market, but simply changed jobs in search of higher wages. Employers are really ready to increase wages, because there are not enough workers, even unskilled labour.

At the same time, this does not save the situation for ordinary people – over the year, real wages in the United States decreased by 2.4%. The record inflation of 7% for 40 years eats up the entire wage increase (according to the standards of 1990 estimates, consumer inflation was 11%). Manufacturers' selling prices increased by 9.7% in December 2021, which means that prices for final products will continue to rise.

It is not surprising that the problem of inflation for Americans came out on top, ahead of the problem of the pandemic. The Washington Post frankly writes that representatives of the US Democratic Party fear that rising inflation may cost them dearly in the upcoming congressional elections. According to polls, 70% of Americans believe that the situation in the economy is getting worse.

However, this is not the only crisis that has emerged during the presidency of Joe Biden.

Due to lockdowns, consumer preferences decreased in the service sector and increased for goods. Disruption of global logistics chains and, above all, container transportation has led to a shortage of goods in the United States. Before the Christmas holidays, the White House administration had to take emergency measures to "save Christmas" and provide Americans with custom-made gifts, which are produced mostly abroad.

At the moment, 82% of Americans are afraid that problems in supply chains are destroying their life plans. A number of experts predict that the crisis in the supply of food and essential goods will not end next year. Some believe that the normal, "pre-pandemic" level of supply will return only by the middle of 2024. As CNBC notes, the crisis in the supply chain has seriously affected leading grocery chains, shares of Albertsons, Kroger and Walmart have fallen significantly.

A flash mob with photos and videos of empty shelves in American stores with the hashtag #BareShelvesBiden is gaining popularity on Twitter. Supporters of the Democratic Party note that supply disruptions and rationing when selling products happened also under Donald Trump. However, it is worth noting that if earlier the range was just sometimes reduced, now the remaining products jump in price.

In a December RUSSTRAT article, it was noted that according to a study carried out by the American non-governmental organisation Food & Water Watch, US residents may be hit by a global food shortage. Bloomberg reports that if in pre-pandemic 2019, 10.9% of Americans, or approximately 35 million, were at risk of food insecurity, then in 2020 this figure rose to 60 million. In August 2021, the US government increased funding for the food stamp program (SNAP) by 30%.

At the moment, the head of one of the food banks explains: "I would frankly like to say that the worst of the COVID-19 hunger crisis is over. And it’s just not true," she said. Due to the increase in food prices, donations are not enough and meat purchases have to be reduced by 30%. Congress is expected to allocate an additional $2 billion for the Emergency Food Assistance Program in 2022, but American food banks, led by Feeding America, argue that this is not enough to meet the current wave of people in need.

Inflation primarily affects the most vulnerable segments of the population, which naturally leads to an increase in crime. By December 2021, at least 12 major US cities have set historic homicide records. Philadelphia, the nation's sixth-largest city, had 523 homicides as of December 7, 2021, according to police, surpassing the 500-homicide figure set in 1990, after years of a stagnant American economy.

Recently, the American media have covered footage of groups of people robbing cars with mail parcels, leaving not so valuable things right on the railway tracks. However, not only mail trains are robbed, but also just railway containers.

The practice of prosecutors in cities controlled by the Democratic Party, who simply released people detained for theft on a small bail, also contributed to the increase in crime. In Los Angeles, theft with less than $950 in damages is not considered a serious crime, so robberies of stores in broad daylight have become commonplace, sometimes becoming widespread. Stores of well-known brands are already forced to close.

The establishment might have continued to ignore the worsening crime scene, but the episode of the murder of the 81-year-old widow of a famous black producer in a prestigious Los Angeles neighbourhood - Beverly Hills - has even disturbed celebrities.

The leadership of the Democratic Party noted the jump in crime, but ruled out a relationship between the Democrats' initiatives to reduce the police and liberalise criminal legislation and this growth. Representatives of the White House refused to take responsibility for the current situation, linking the increase in crime with the rampant pandemic and a large number of weapons in the hands of American citizens.

One shouldn’t forget about the crisis on the border with Mexico, which began immediately after Joe Biden took office, as he relaxed border controls. As a result, about 2 million illegal migrants crossed the US border in 2021. It got to the point that the governor of Arizona announced the creation of a "Border Strike Group" together with the state of Texas to ensure order at the state border.

Foreign policy

Joe Biden’s statement that America is back and will sit at the head of the international policy table has also been little realised. The first major event, the US-China summit, which was held by the foreign ministers of the two countries from March 18 to 19, was marked by a scandal, as China rebuffed the usual tone of demands from the United States.

Joe Biden's campaign promise to bring Iran back to the "nuclear deal" proved rather difficult to fulfil. The Americans hoped that Iran would independently return to compliance with the JCPOA, and then it would be possible to lift sanctions from it. However, the Iranians want guarantees that the United States will completely lift all sanctions against Tehran and not withdraw from the JCPOA again. The Americans are slow to respond and are afraid of losing face.

The most high-profile foreign policy scandal of the Joe Biden administration was the unsuccessful withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan in August 2021. Images of Afghans grabbing the landing gear of an American military plane and then falling from the sky to the ground flew around the world. In the last days of the evacuation, 13 US soldiers were killed as a result of the terrorist attack. In January 2022, the White House is still coordinating with the State Department to evacuate the remaining American citizens from Afghanistan.

On September 15, 2021, Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States announced the creation of a new security partnership - AUKUS. Under it, Australia must independently build at least eight nuclear submarines. Therefore, Australia had to disrupt a major contract with France for the construction of submarines. Paris called the decision a "stab in the back”. The US President's Special Representative for Climate Change, John Kerry, in an interview with the French TV channel BFM, said that Joe Biden did not know about the negative consequences for Paris. The White House even had to disavow John Kerry's statement.

From December 9 to 10, a virtual "Summit for Democracy" was held under the auspices of the United States within the framework of the paradigm announced by Joe Biden in light of the struggle between democracies and autocracies. This attempt to consolidate the countries that are pro-American has remained only an attempt without formal solutions and results.

Separately, it is necessary to highlight the relations between the United States and Russia. On March 17, 2021, in an interview with ABC News, Joe Biden said that Russian President Vladimir Putin has no soul and considers him a murderer. This attempt to dehumanise the leader of a major power caused a big information wave. Then, a series of telephone conversations between the two presidents and a face-to-face meeting took place in Geneva.

Finally, on December 15, US Deputy Secretary of State Karen Donfried was handed draft agreements on security guarantees between Russia and the United States and NATO. The negotiations at the level of deputy foreign ministers that followed on the 10th of January did not lead to concrete results, and the parties mostly remained at their positions. The United States must submit its written response to Russia on the proposals received. However, US officials have already accused Russia of preparing a possible provocation in Ukraine.

Further prospects

Polls from January 12, 2022 show that Joe Biden's approval rating slipped to 33% and became the lowest among all post-war American presidents during this time period. Even the MNSBC channel, which supports the position of the Democratic Party, says that Joe Biden did not live up to the hopes placed on him. Close to the Democratic Party and having its own insider in the White House, Axios published an article entitled "Biden closes out Year 1 on an epic losing streak".

Things are really bad for Joe Biden. It got to the point that one of the prominent activists of the Democratic Party in Georgia, LaTosha Brown, refused to meet with him when he came to the state to campaign for federal electoral legislation, and in fact wanted to mobilise supporters of the democratic party. LaTosha Brown explained this by the fact that Joe Biden did not fulfil his election promises. Democratic candidate for Governor of Georgia Stacey Abrams did not meet with Joe Biden, citing other plans, and limited herself to just a phone call.

Most likely, Joe Biden's toxicity will increase, as there is no chance that accelerated inflation will be successfully dealt with in the near future. If the situation cannot be stabilised at all before the middle of the congressional race, the Democratic party will have to "push" Joe Biden into the background. One cannot rule out the possibility that he will be asked to resign for health reasons.

I think it is no coincidence that the central American media has published a lot of articles about Hillary Clinton over the past month, promoting her presidential ambitions for 2024. Rumours that were born after Hillary Clinton met with Vice President Kamala Harris, that Hillary Clinton could become vice president under Kamala Harris after the resignation of Joe Biden, may well be true. To do this, one should follow the publications in the Democratic Politico, while there were no laudatory publications about Hillary Clinton, which means that there is no consensus on this issue in the Democratic party yet.

I find it hard to imagine what can save Joe Biden from a fiasco, unless there is a natural disaster on a national scale, a grief that unites the country, and such disasters have already happened in the history of the United States.

In addition, the Democratic party must carry out its own plan for "social spending”, initiated by the progressive part of the party. And even if this causes another surge in inflation, since the plan provides for direct payments to citizens for children.

The “social spending” project is the brainchild of progressives who want to put the United States on the rails of a more "social state", increasing the role of government in the distribution of wealth, which was not previously the case. They realise that this may be their last chance to change the pattern of interaction between the state and society in the United States.

The party leadership has already violated the factional agreement not in favour of the progressives, and if this plan is not adopted, it will break the Democratic party. Judging by the age of the current top of the Democratic party, it is obvious that they destroyed their 40-50-year-old competitors in order to rule themselves.

Progressives are too young, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is only 32 years old, she cannot compete, her political career in the future has good prospects, given the changes in the national composition of the United States, but she can agitate her electorate to sabotage congressional elections, which will lead the Democratic Party to disaster.

Rising social tensions in the United States are inevitable. The fact is that the US central media will be forced to provide time for Republican candidates. They, in turn, will put pressure on every weak point of the Joe Biden administration, of which there are plenty, and, thus, change the general information background. Citizens who have really fallen in their standard of living will become radicalised and manifestations of social unrest are quite likely.

Democrats are well aware that the capture by Republicans of a significant majority in Congress entails paralysis of the power of the Democratic president, since the difference in ideological approaches and already accumulated grievances are huge. The investigation by the Democrats into the "events of January 6" promises a huge number of problems, during which they carefully try not to out themselves. Therefore, supporters of the Democratic Party compare the victory of the "Trumpists" in the elections with the end of democracy.

Various polls give the Republican party an advantage in congressional elections from 1% to 10%, even among the agencies most loyal to the Democratic party. In this regard, we cannot exclude the possibility of provocation by the Democratic Party in the form of a "new George Floyd" or a terrorist attack by "white supremacists", after which it will be possible to arrange an information attack or even a hunt by law enforcement officers for political opponents.

In the event that the United States imposes serious sanctions on Russia, as was indicated in the forecast for 2022, this may negatively affect the American economy itself. Due to the fact that the United States clearly overestimates its capabilities, this is confirmed by the very fact that State Department representatives were evaluating options to compensate for the lack of Russian gas supplies for the European market, which is naturally impossible if we talk about full volumes.

The recent resignation of two senior White House officials responsible for environmental protection, which alarmed environmental activists, may tell us that Joe Biden is preparing to push back the "green agenda" until later, in the run-up to the energy crisis. U.S. shale oil producers are ramping up production, Reuters reports. Analysts at Bank of America predict that global drilling costs will grow by 22%, which will be the strongest growth since 2006.

Thus, 2022 will be one of the turning points in the recent history of the United States, largely determining not only the political, but also the ideological vector of the country's further development.