The US is preparing to get a residence permit at the graveyard of empires

The events in Afghanistan have firmly occupied the main place on the information agenda of recent days. They mainly discussed the geopolitical consequences of the US’ "fleeing" from Afghanistan and the future of this country under the Taliban.

However, I propose to consider the Afghan problem in a different context, in the context of the domestic political situation in the United States. In my opinion, what happened very clearly highlights the current state of the state apparatus and significantly reduces the options for the development of the political fight of the American elites.

It came as a surprise to me that the failure of the United States in Afghanistan began to be peddled not only in the conservative media, but also in the most liberal ones. So, an article on this topic in the magazine Politico, loyal to the US Democratic Party, began with the following paragraph:

"President Joe Biden long touted his foreign policy credentials as a core asset he’d bring to the Oval Office. And once he was in the White House, he proudly proclaimed “America is back” on the world stage. Instead, chaos and confusion dominated his first major foreign policy decision — the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan”.

Then Politico published a message from an Afghan journalist who collaborated with the United States, under the headline: "I Believed in the U.S. But That Turned Out to Be Such a Big Mistake”. Here are some quotes:

“We could never have imagined and believed that this would happen. We could never imagine we could be betrayed so badly by the U.S. The feeling of betrayal… I dedicated my life to the [American] values. There was a lot of promise, a lot of assurance. A lot of talk about values, a lot of talk about progress, about rights, about women’s rights, about freedom, about democracy. That all turned out to be hollow. Had I known that this commitment was temporary, I wouldn't have risked my life.

People here are shocked [by the U.S. pulling out of Afghanistan]. They never could imagine they would do this. If they abandon us, probably thousands of people would be killed. And you know no longer would the U.S. have the moral authority to go places to say, ‘We believe in human rights. We fight for human rights and democracy’.”

He openly spoke harshly in his CNN article: "Biden's botched Afghan exit is a disaster at home and abroad long in the making":

"The debacle of the US defeat and chaotic retreat in Afghanistan is a political disaster for Joe Biden, whose failure to orchestrate an urgent and orderly exit will further rock a presidency plagued by crises and stain his legacy."

The Hill wrote in the same vein:

"Whether President Biden acknowledges it or not, the debacle in Afghanistan has undermined U.S. prestige as a superpower. America’s credibility as an ally has eroded because of the manner in which the Afghan government was abandoned during the Doha talks. The fear of the U.S. among its enemies has also diminished."

Naturally, the leadership of the Republican Party spoke in unison, the leader of the Republicans in the Senate, Mitch McConnell, regarded the scenes of the withdrawal of troops as “the embarrassment of a superpower laid low”. Some members of the Democratic Party held the same opinion: "To say that today is anything short of a disaster would be dishonest. Worse, it was avoidable," wrote Democratic Senator Mark Warner.

Important for assessing the attitude of the US military to what is happening in Afghanistan, in my opinion, are 2 publications on the military website Militarytimes. For understanding, it is almost like the newspaper and TV channel “ZVEZDA” for us.

The first evaluation publication on the situation in Afghanistan begins with the words “What's happening now is worse". In the article, the former captain of the aircraft carrier "Midway" Larry Chambers says that the situation is even worse than during the evacuation from Saigon.

"We had a huge amphibious force sitting off Saigon. We don’t have a huge amphibious force sitting off Kabul,” he said. Larry Chambers became a legend after he gave a "wild order" in 1975 to land helicopters into the water in order to accept as many refugees from Saigon as possible.

Next, Militarytimes published a letter from a former Afghan translator who worked for the US army. In the letter, he claims that he was tortured when the Taliban found in his documents a mention that he worked for a company with an English name. Later, without receiving recognition for working for the US Army, he was released. Now, while in Kabul, he asks his former colleagues to save his life and his family.

Part of the explanation for the outburst of public opinion, both conservative and liberal parts of the US population, can be found in a CNN article that says that the crises of August are turning into a turning point in Joe Biden's presidency.

CNN reminds that in addition to the crisis in Afghanistan, the pandemic has not gone anywhere, the number of COVID-19 diseases in the United States has increased by 26% in a week. After the Congressional approval of the $1 trillion infrastructure package, there is still a bipartisan battle for the $3.5 trillion package, which may drag on for months.

The issue of inflation is particularly urgent. In 12 months, consumer prices in the United States increased by 4.3%, and from June to July, prices increased by 0.5%. The situation on the southern border of the United States remains acute. In July, the US border guard detained 212,672 migrants, which is 12% more than in June and there is no way out of the situation.

I would like to add that representatives of the Republican Party also focus on the rampant crime in cities under the leadership of Democrats. Summing up what is happening, we can say that the Joe Biden administration does not solve crises, but breeds them. The crisis in Afghanistan was the last straw that overflowed the cup of patience.

During the avalanche-like seizure of territories by the Taliban, on August 14, the White House issued a lengthy statement on behalf of Joe Biden, and about the specific decisions there, only sending about 5,000 American troops to evacuate American personnel and allied personnel was mentioned.

On August 15, the Taliban finally gained a foothold in Kabul and announced the creation of an Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan from the presidential palace. With the appearance of footage of the evacuation of the US embassy, given that on July 8 Joe Biden publicly stated that the Saigon scenario could not be repeated, CNN and CBS demanded explanations directly from Joe Baden himself. He, at that time, was on vacation and his press secretary, Jen Psaki, too.

Only on August 16, did Joe Biden make an address to the nation, where he said that the previous US President Donald Trump left him the strongest Taliban since 2001 and an agreement on the withdrawal of troops. There wasn’t much choice: either leave or start a war with the Taliban. Since the death of American military men in a civil war is meaningless, he decided to withdraw his troops.

"The events we’re seeing now are sadly proof that no amount of military force would ever deliver a stable, united, and secure Afghanistan — as known in history as the ‘graveyard of empires’,” the American president said.

Joe Biden denied that the United States was engaged in building statehood in Afghanistan. He blamed the fall of the "democratic regime" on the leadership of Afghanistan itself, which, according to him, surrendered and fled the country, and the Afghan military surrendered, sometimes without even trying to resist. All allegedly because of the lack of will to fight for their future.

Few people noticed, but in this statement Joe Biden said that he would not mislead the American people and evade his share of responsibility for where the current situation has gone and how it is necessary to act further. "I am President of the United States of America, and the buck stops with me”.

These expressions are the whole essence of the current situation in the United States. In the foreign policy space, the United States is not going to take responsibility for Afghanistan, and in the domestic political situation, Joe Biden takes the burden of responsibility on himself.

The fact is that at the moment the US Democratic Party has no bright candidates for the post of US president in 2024. Two favourites of the Democratic Party were eliminated from the chase. Gavin Newsom, the governor of the most advanced state of California, has lost the support of the electorate due to regular fires and blackouts in "green energy", in September there will be a vote on his recall from office.

Andrew Cuomo, the governor of New York, is resigning on his own due to sex scandals in order to avoid criminal proceedings for his decree to place sick COVID-19 pensioners in nursing homes. This horrific decision may not have surfaced in the media if one of the victims in the nursing home was not a relative of one of the leaders of the Democratic Party of New York.

The only Democratic candidate with a real chance of winning is the current US Vice President Kamala Harris. She frankly failed to stop the migration crisis, her approval rating declined and, therefore, she did not appear in the media for a long time.

In order to dispel rumours that during the peak of the Afghan crisis, she shouted “You will not pin this sh*t on me”, Harris did an interview with CNN and told how difficult it was for Joe Biden to make the decision to withdraw troops from Afghanistan, which she shares, but "the decision always remains with him."

That is precisely why Joe Biden has to take the full brunt of criticism on himself. One can say "grandfather is old, he doesn't care", but the problem is not so much in him, as in his team and the state of the state apparatus as a whole.

The United States has always been distinguished by the quality of information support for its operations, especially abroad. This time, the White House administration frankly failed the information cover for the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan.

At a time when the public demanded an explanation of what was happening from Joe Biden, his administration only published a photo of a "lonely old man in front of the TV”. Only a couple of days later, they posted a photo of the "president working in a team".

The whole situation with the current withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan speaks of the degradation of the US state apparatus. Everyone knew everything about the current state of the government army of Afghanistan and its capabilities. Back in 2019, The Washington Post published a large leak of documents about the state of the Afghanistan armed forces.

"The documents also contradict a long chorus of public statements from U.S. presidents, military commanders and diplomats who assured Americans year after year that they were making progress in Afghanistan and the war was worth fighting,” the publication wrote.

James Clapper, the former director of national intelligence under the Obama administration, explained: “During the six-plus years I was DNI, the IC [intelligence community] consistently assessed the Afghan government and the Afghan military and security forces with a much more pessimistic outlook than did DOD generally, and [the International Security Assistance Force] specifically. Invariably, we were criticised for being too negative, uninformed or both”.

The reason for the difference in estimates between the intelligence service and the Department of Defence is banally simple. The Ministry of Defence annually distributed more than 2% of Afghanistan's GDP for its needs – $45 billion of US budget funds, and from 2010 to 2012, the cost of the mission in Afghanistan was more than $100 billion per year.

Banal greed did not allow the Department of Defence and their contractors to tear themselves away from Afghanistan. According to official data of the supervisory authority for the reconstruction of Afghanistan alone, from 2008 to 2017, $15.5 billion was withdrawn from the budget in a fraudulent way (this report has disappeared from the official website, but it is possible to find a copy of it).

I would like to draw your attention to the fact that the reason for the current crisis for the United States in Afghanistan was the degradation of the system, when the interests of individuals (groups) became above the state.

The liberal publication The Wall Street Journal published information about a secret telegram dated July 13 signed by 23 employees of the US Embassy in Kabul, where it was reported that the Taliban offensive is inevitable, and the Afghan military may not be able to stop it. The head of the State Department, Anthony Blinken, was acquainted with this telegram, the publication claims, but there was no reaction.

The publication Politico reported from anonymous sources that the State Department "were sitting on their hands" all summer and did not deal with the issue of evacuation of civilians, probably relying on the assessments of the Department of Defence about the combat capability of the government troops of Afghanistan.

As The Washington Times wrote, the head of the Department of Defence, Lloyd Austin, is not going to resign because of the crisis in Afghanistan, although the former commander of American forces in Afghanistan, General David Petraeus, points out mistakes in the order of withdrawal of troops. During a briefing at the Pentagon, the head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Mark Milley, told reporters that, despite rumours, intelligence did not report to the Pentagon that the armed forces of Afghanistan could surrender positions in 11 days.

It will not be possible to shift all responsibility for the failure in Afghanistan to intelligence. The former head of the CIA's counter-terrorism department in South and Southwest Asia, Douglas London, whose competence was Afghanistan, told the ins and outs of how the decision to withdraw from Afghanistan was made.

London worked in the Trump administration, and then in the transition group of the new Biden administration, which enthusiastically decided to support the idea of the previous president about the US withdrawal from Afghanistan as a win-win option, since part of the likely negative could be blamed on Trump.

Intelligence assessments on the development of the situation in Afghanistan were different depending on the current situation. The CIA warned that without an American military presence and intelligence outside of Kabul, with the offensive of the Taliban and with President Ghani's relations with his own political partners undermined, the Afghan government could crumble within a few days. And so it happened.

The failure was not caused by the absence of any intelligence warning, but rather by the arrogance of the decision makers and the calculation of political risk made by them. The choice of officials is too often made in their personal and political interests, London writes in conclusion.

The publication Politico now writes that the White House is trying to suppress panic in the camp of the Democrats, against the background of unflattering statements and accusations against the White House from party members about the situation in Afghanistan. At the same time, it will not be possible to avoid finding the culprits during the hearings of the Senate committees on Intelligence, international relations and the armed forces. Therefore, the Afghan topic will definitely be relevant in the United States for several more months.

Although, it should be noted that the White House has the potential to partially stop the crisis situation. On August 18, it was reported that the US military was able to agree on "deconflictational interaction" with the Taliban.

At the same time, it was already clear from the beginning that the Taliban were limited to the encirclement of the airport in Kabul, and they are not taking any aggressive actions, which means that they are acting in accordance with some agreements with the Americans.

Apparently, within the framework of the same agreements, the Americans do not destroy military equipment and ammunition left after the Afghan army in their permanent storage places. Journalists at the Pentagon asked a direct question – "Will the US military prevent the capture of equipment by the Taliban?", a representative of the Department of Defence said that he did not have an answer to this question.

Summarising the above, we can say that Afghanistan has demonstrated the fracture of the US state system, and Joe Biden's speechwriters, consciously or unconsciously, have already registered their country in the graveyard of empires.

Of course, there will definitely be attempts to whitewash the Joe Biden administration in this crisis. The publication Politico, remembering that it is the mouthpiece of the Democratic Party, has already rewritten the history of the "Biden team’s five-day scramble" for Afghanistan in a heroic way. However, a fundamental change in the domestic political situation has already occurred, harsh criticism of Joe Biden has ceased to be a taboo for the liberal media.

Six months ago, no one could have imagined that the liberal media and Donald Trump would criticise Joe Biden for the same thing, with almost the same set of theses. Back then it was impossible to imagine that The Wall Street Journal would publish information about secret diplomatic correspondence accusing the administration of President Joe Biden of criminal negligence.

It was impossible to imagine that CNN hosts would say that for many years the US government had been deceiving its citizens about the situation in Afghanistan, and then compare the contradictory theses in Joe Biden's statements and accuse him of incompetence.

In the conditions of the delegitimisation of Joe Biden's presidency by violations in the 2020 election, in the eyes of the conservative part of society and loss of trust even from the liberal-minded public, the probability of implementing the previously announced scenario increases, when Joe Biden, taking on the negative of the mistakes made, will resign.

The president's chair will be occupied by Kamala Harris with an updated agenda of the Democratic Party for the Congress elections in 2022. To strengthen her weight, she is already conducting "raids on the rear" of the Democratic Party, and to gain "international experience" she is preparing for a visit to Vietnam and Singapore.

In any case, the political struggle in the United States will escalate, since no political force has a significant advantage in the support of the electorate. According to the Rasmussen Reports poll for August 16-17, 2021, if voters were now offered to choose between Trump and Biden, 43% would vote for Trump, 37% for Biden, and 14% for another candidate.