How can the US respond to Russian icebreakers in the Arctic?
American officials have regularly expressed their concern about the state of the domestic icebreaking fleet. The main factor of this concern was not the possibility of ensuring the national, in the generally accepted sense of the word, interests of the United States, but global competition. First of all, we are talking about Russia and China, with which the United States can no longer technologically compete in the Arctic, which forces Washington to look for an urgent solution.
In the last days of 2021, the Naval Sea Systems Command of the US Navy signed a contract worth $552.655 million with the American shipbuilding company VT Halter Marine for the construction of the second large diesel-electric icebreaker for the US Coast Guard under the Polar Security Cutter (PSC) program. The work is supposed to be completed by September 2026.
The lead icebreaker of this program was ordered by the same shipbuilding company in April 2019 under a contract worth $745.941 million and is scheduled to enter service by June 2024. A significant difference in the contract value is explained by the cost of designing the series. In total, it is planned to build up to three units of icebreakers, the last of which should be commissioned in 2027.
Until the icebreakers are completed, the United States will have to settle for one or two icebreakers, depending on which one will be on the move at the right time. We are talking about one heavy icebreaker “Polar Star", launched in 1976, and one relatively new medium icebreaker "Healy", commissioned in 1999. The service life of “Polar Star” has been repeatedly extended – after the next repair, the vessel will be in service until 2025.
Strategic Fleet
"Russia has the world’s largest icebreaker fleet, numbering over 40 total with three more under construction and a dozen planned in the next decade. China, too, is building ice breakers and investing in Arctic infrastructure. By contrast, the US Coast Guard has just two polar icebreakers: the Polar Star and the Healy. Until recently, those two ships divided their efforts at opposite poles — the Polar Star resupplying the McMurdo Station in Antarctica, and the Healy protecting US interests in the Arctic.
A recent shipboard fire aboard the ‘Healy’ has put half of America’s polar icebreaker fleet out of commission," complain the senators Roger Wicker and Dan Sullivan, members of the United States Committee on Armed Services.
The fact that the concern about the possibility of operations in the ice is expressed not by a scientific institute, but by a "defence" structure, is not at all a coincidence.
The goal of the PSC program is described on the official website in rather restrained terms. Two (or three) icebreakers should help protect "vital US interests in the polar regions," namely, strengthen defence in the Arctic and Antarctic, "enforce treaties and other laws needed to safeguard both industry and the environment”, "provide ports, waterways and coastal security" and provide escorts for non-icebreaker-class vessels.
"The Arctic is a geopolitical convergence point. Without new investment in polar capabilities, our adversaries' influence will grow," the co-authors/senators write, expressing the hope that there will be at least six icebreakers under the PSC program.
The Heritage Foundation's article entitled "US Needs Icebreakers to Keep Up With China and Russia in Arctic" explains who the US establishment considers an opponent in this case and why.
Recall that the Heritage Foundation is one of the main American conservative think tanks, closely associated with the Republican Party, according to President Ronald Reagan, which acted as the "lifeblood" of his administration. The Heritage Foundation was noted for its active participation in the development of most plans to overthrow Soviet-oriented governments around the world, and still remains one of the pillars of the "hawkish" wing of American foreign policy.
The Heritage Foundation recalls that beyond the Arctic Circle there are rare earth minerals and untouched oil and gas deposits – approximately 13% and 30% of the world's reserves, respectively. In absolute terms, according to the UN, Arctic hydrocarbon reserves amount to 100 billion tons of oil and 50 trillion cubic meters of gas, according to the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment of the Russian Federation - 258 billion conventional tons of gas and oil in the Russian sector of the Arctic, or 60% of all the country's hydrocarbons.
Sufficient access to Arctic reserves, as Washington estimates for itself, is by no means guaranteed, because in addition to the largest icebreaking fleet on the planet, there is also China, which is already at this stage ahead of the United States in terms of the number and characteristics of the icebreaking fleet. At the moment, Beijing has two icebreakers, one nuclear-powered vessel of this type is under construction.
"The real possibility of Russian or Chinese expansion into the United States’ rightful share of Arctic resources should alarm the Biden administration, to say the least," writes the Heritage Foundation, noting that China is "a self-described 'near-Arctic state' that does not own any actual territory in the Arctic”.
It should be noted that due to the longest "polar" coastline on the planet, Russia has more than half of all undiscovered Arctic reserves. And, rather, we can talk about attempts by third countries to claim the Russian share – as well as logistics.
Tip of the iceberg
The issue of having a territory in the Arctic is one of the most acute for any current or potential player. To a large extent, the United States itself became an Arctic state thanks to the purchase of Alaska from Russia in 1867 - this American state is the only US territory beyond the Arctic Circle.
The presence of a territory beyond the Arctic Circle means access to the ocean shelf, where huge reserves of hydrocarbons lie. A vast Russian territory implies the largest "piece" of the shelf – which is why it is of great importance to consider the application for expanding the shelf submitted by Russia to the UN in 2015.
In 1982, the Convention on the Law of the Sea was adopted, according to which the state's water area extends only to the Arctic shelf, while the off-shelf zone is declared international. Russia will have to prove that the underwater Lomonosov and Mendeleyev ranges are of continental origin, connected with the territory of Russia. This is disputed by Denmark, which claims that the underwater Lomonosov ridge is a sunken part of Greenland.
To gather evidence that the Lomonosov Ridge is an extension of the Russian Federation's polar possessions, the Russian side conducted an unprecedented expedition called “Arctic 2007" in July-August 2007, which consisted of surface and underwater parts and ended with the installation of the Russian flag at the bottom of the Arctic Ocean at the North Pole of the Earth.
According to geological studies, the Russian territory includes the Lomonosov Ridge, the Podvodnikov Basin, the Mendeleyev Ridge, and the southern tip of the Gakkel Ridge. Recognition of these studies at the UN level will make it possible to increase Russia's offshore territory by 1.2 million square kilometres, and potential hydrocarbon reserves by at least five billion tons of conventional fuel.
Given the above, the idea of former US President Donald Trump to buy Greenland from Denmark looks like an extravagant, but absolutely logical concept.
In general, the Arctic zone is divided into 5 sectors adjacent to the northern borders of Denmark (at the expense of Greenland), Canada, Norway, the Russian Federation and the United States. Each of these countries has exclusively economic zones extending more than 300 km from their coastal territories. The North Pole itself and the adjacent part of the Arctic Ocean do not belong to any of the states.
The five Arctic states will inevitably lay claim to Arctic resources - either independently or as a proxy for other countries that are deprived of territorial access to the Arctic, but have sufficient geopolitical potential for real claims.
Canada looks like the only alternative support for the United States in the development of the Arctic. Its icebreaking fleet is more powerful than the American one – it has 6 vessels of different tonnage, but the problems of Canadian icebreakers are the same. The largest and most powerful icebreaker, "Louis S. St-Laurent”, was built in 1969, and three medium-class icebreakers were built in the mid-1970s.
Plans for the modernisation of the sea-going personnel were announced 30 years ago, and it was planned to launch the replacement of “Louis S. St-Laurent” in the mid-1980s. An additional obstacle is that Canada's icebreaking tradition is largely lost.
Seven icebreakers are listed in the Icelandic fleet. Finland, which formally does not belong to the club of states that own the Arctic territories, has a great shipbuilding potential. It has 7 icebreakers, which is significantly more than most other contenders for the Arctic latitudes: "arctic" Norway is content with a single icebreaker, Sweden bordering Finland has five icebreakers, and Denmark has four. At least a dozen icebreakers built in the 70s and 80s, working in the interests of Russian private companies, are of Finnish origin.
The icebreaking fleet of Russia's neighbours has a high degree of wear and tear, including due to active operation by several parties at once. Sweden's icebreaking flagship “Odena” is scheduled to operate until 2030, but there is talk of decommissioning it ahead of schedule. In addition to Sweden, the icebreaker was used for projects in the United States, Canada, Norway, and even India and South Korea. Stockholm has plans to replace its icebreaking fleet, with the construction of 5 vessels in the early 2030s, but funding has not yet been determined.
Russia, which has the largest and highest-quality icebreaker fleet, will clearly retain this advantage in the foreseeable future. The current version of the federal project "Seaports of Russia” (comprehensive plan approved by order) provides for the construction of nine icebreakers for the needs of federal state unitary enterprise "Rosmorport".
One can find out what kind of icebreakers they will be, including from the presentation on the Rosatom website. On November 16, 2021, one of the new Russian icebreakers of Project 22220 “Siberia" entered sea trials. Project 22220 nuclear-powered icebreakers with a capacity of 60 MW are currently the largest and most powerful in the world, they are able to lead caravans of ships in Arctic conditions, breaking through ice up to three meters thick and clearing a path 34 meters wide.
The “Leader” project - a super-powerful (120 MW propeller-driven) icebreaker of unlimited range, capable of breaking through ice over four meters, leaving a 50-meter-wide channel sufficient for the passage of any known vessels - is supposed to become a strategic solution that ensures the inaccessibility of the Russian atomic fleet for the coming years and even decades. The lead vessel is scheduled to be built in 2027.
The Polar Silk Road
Compared to traditional trade transit routes from Europe to Asia and back, the Northern Sea Route offers significant logistics bonuses. The journey by sea from the EU to China via the Suez Canal takes 40 days, along the Northern Sea Route – only 20, mainly through Russian waters that are safe from the point of view of piracy and geopolitical risks. This makes the Northern Sea Route an attractive alternative to the traditional route through the Strait of Malacca, the strategic importance of which for China was discussed in detail in an earlier RUSSTRAT article.
In the future, the Northern Sea Route may become an equivalent replacement for traditional routes. For example, active probing of work in this direction is carried out by India, for which the time savings when choosing the northern route is 30%.
China unveiled its own "Polar Silk Road" concept in 2018, saying it would encourage companies to build infrastructure and conduct commercial test flights that would "open up opportunities in the Arctic”. Since then, Chinese companies have opened new cargo routes and conducted various expeditions in the region, and Beijing plans to launch a satellite to monitor sea ice and sea traffic in 2022. At the other pole, China is also very active - there are four research stations operating in Antarctica, and another one is in the construction phase.
To support circumpolar activity, China has two of its own medium diesel icebreakers - Xuelong, built in Kherson, Ukraine in 1993, and Xuelong 2, built in 2019 by joint efforts of China and Finland. This is obviously not enough, especially since the first icebreaker “Xue Long" can be called as such at a stretch - it would be more appropriate to call it a supply ship of reinforced ice class.
Over the next 4-5 years, China plans to develop a fully-fledged heavy icebreaker and semi-submersible vessels with a displacement of 100,000 tons - so large that they can carry other vessels.
The Chinese Ministry of Transport also set a goal to complete the design of another semi-submersible rescue vessel in three years that could be used to lift up to 5,000 tons of loads of any kind.
The new vessels are part of China's five-year development plan, adopted in 2021. It includes, among other things, vessels to support deep-sea operations and heavy icebreakers, as well as the introduction of offshore floating nuclear power stations.
China has experience in building large-capacity semi-submerged vessels. In 2017, the US Navy used one of them to transport the destroyer USS Fitzgerald back to its home port after the ship's collision with a cargo ship killed seven American sailors off the coast of Japan.
Exactly how many vessels China will build capable of navigating through the Arctic ice remains a matter of debate. From documents of the Ministry of Transport, we can conclude that there will be at least 5-7 of them, which is enough with a margin to ensure uninterrupted navigation in high latitudes.
However, in addition to peaceful logistics, the North has another dimension.
"Wrong" hegemony
In the first days of 2022, experts from Canada expressed concern that Russia and China are "eyeing the shipping routes that have opened up as a result, and threatening our national security in the process.”
According to Robert Huebert of the University of Calgary, China needs "Arctic exploration to support its strategic goals”. The annoying factor for Canada and the United States is that China may have the opportunity to do what the US Navy does in the South China Sea off the Spratly Islands near China itself.
"They sent ships to Scandinavian countries, visited Finland, Sweden and Denmark. They also sent five ships to the Aleutian Island chain, approached and returned. This was obviously a reminder to the United States that the Chinese can just as easily come to American waters," Huebert said.
The main fear for the United States is the possibility of the Chinese fleet penetrating the Northwest Passage, which is a sea route along the northern coast of North America between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, bypassing Canada "from above". To carry out such a manoeuvre, ships need means to overcome ice, which makes icebreakers an indispensable support vessel in such cases.
It is impossible not to recall that the domestic practice in this sense is very promising. In 2023, it is planned to put into operation the already launched lead ship of Project 23550 "Ivan Papanin" - a representative of a unique class of universal patrol ships of the Arctic zone, capable of performing the functions of an icebreaker and striking the enemy with “Kalibr” missiles.
With Russia, by and large, it is difficult to do something in the Arctic, but we should do everything possible to counteract China's penetration into the circumpolar regions, many American analysts say.
In January 2018, Chinese officials tried to buy and significantly expand Finland's Kemijärvi Air Base for use by large Chinese aircraft ostensibly for Arctic research, worries David Auerswald of the US National War College in Washington. Back then the Chinese proposal was rejected - presumably because of the proximity of the airfield to the Rovajärvi artillery range. However, the expert believes that it is necessary to neutralise the very possibility of such Chinese activity as soon as possible.
Any new US security strategy in the Arctic should have three goals, Auerswald said: preventing an attack on US or allied territory, preventing China or Russia from weakening "existing Arctic governance" and "preventing regional hegemony" by China or Russia.
To achieve these goals, Auerswald believes, it is necessary to develop military capabilities for use in the North American and European Arctic subregions, and, given the obvious technological lag of the United States, it is necessary to "convince allies that the United States is a reliable security partner”.
In part, Auerswald writes, persuasion has already begun with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken's consultations in Denmark ahead of the Arctic Council ministerial meeting in May 2021. Auerswald calls for speed, because China can counter the US with an effective "weapon".
"China’s regional actions are troubling, particularly its use of government-linked investments, loans, and trade deals to influence Arctic states or populations <…> Any US security strategy in the Arctic should alleviate these threats," Auerswald insists.
In terms of the confrontation with Russia, the expert believes, it is necessary to focus efforts to prevent Russian "unilateral assertions of control along the Northern Sea Route" and recognition of the Russian ownership of the Lomonosov Ridge.
How many centres of force can there be at one pole?
Based on the known figures, if the theoretical plans are implemented, by the turn of 2030, Russia can approach with an icebreaking fleet of more than 50 units, China by this time will have at least three or four ice-class vessels. This does not take into account specialised Russian ships that can combine military functions with shipping support.
Under an optimistic scenario, the United States will have 8 vessels in service and will still have two existing icebreakers, and may get access to two dozen icebreakers of the united coalition of loyal circumpolar countries - if China does not reach an agreement with them earlier. Perhaps, taking into account the agreements within the framework of AUKUS, the United States will also be able to use the services of Australia's new and only icebreaker “Nuyina”.
Perhaps the United Kingdom will be able to share its only icebreaker that previously belonged to Norway - another ice-class vessel, the “James Clark Ross” icebreaker, which served 30 years as part of the British Antarctic Mission, was sold to Ukraine in August 2021.
Even if they join forces, the US-satellite coalition will be seriously inferior to the Russian icebreaker fleet, although in purely quantitative terms it will be able to surpass China. However, there is little doubt that the Russian side will be able to provide China with partner services on any scientific or commercial voyages of interest to Beijing.
To compensate for the lack of icebreakers, the United States intends to expand the presence of aviation, as well as attract private contractors to build dual-use infrastructure that could be used for military needs. Satellite companies are potentially attractive government partners. The US military is exploring private-sector capabilities, such as OneWeb and Starlink polar communications satellites. The European Space Agency is doing the same with Arctic weather satellites.
The recent agreement for the US military to use the Ramsund naval facility and Evenes Air Base in northern Norway is a good start, writes David Auerswald. A similar arrangement can be reached for the Danish Air Force, which has permanent bases in the United States and bases in Thule, Greenland. The expansion of the runway and facilities on the Norwegian island of Jan Mayen and the reconstruction of an additional airfield in Greenland together with the Danes could serve similar purposes, the expert believes.
Finally, the United States could coordinate existing niche capabilities among its Arctic allies, which is the Arctic version of NATO's Joint Forces initiative, Auerswald said.
Conclusions.
The advantage of the Russian icebreaker fleet in the foreseeable future will remain indisputable, which will give Russia the technical capabilities to develop the Arctic.
A complex of military-political, economic and resource reasons will force China to pay more and more attention to the North Pole region.
Major American think tanks recognise the impossibility of achieving the superiority of the US icebreaking fleet over Russia and China, insisting on compensating for this weakness by other means.
The United States’ own resources seem insufficient for such compensation by the United States itself, which implies active efforts to attract resources from other countries for the sake of Washington's goals.
Attempts to put pressure on Russia in order to partially or completely renounce its sovereign right to the Northern Sea Route, as well as part of the ocean shelf belonging to the Russian Federation, are very likely.