Democrats are looking for ways to stay in power in the US forever

American Democrats risk losing their position on the political Olympus of the United States in the coming months due to the steady decline in the ratings of the current administration, caused by failures both at home and abroad. The "X" hour for them will be the midterm elections in November 2022, in which the "blue" has less and less chance of winning.

This prospect is already affecting Washington's influence, including in the international arena. All vis-a-vis are forced to keep in mind the idea that in a couple of years any agreements with this or that American figure may go to the trash can due to the coming to power of their opponents, and they themselves will become a person involved in a criminal case.

Of course, the Democratic Party does not want to lose the reins of power. But realising that the usual way to win an election is impossible, it is ready to use such tricks, in comparison with which the "vote of the dead" in the 2020 presidential election is a model of democracy. One of the alleged tricks, already tried at the municipal level in a number of states, is to grant the right to vote to migrants who have not obtained US citizenship, while erasing electoral distinctions between citizens and foreigners.

Such an innovation would undermine all confidence in the institution of American democracy. It is already overloaded with ridiculous anachronisms, which, by and large, does not allow us to see it as a role model. What is the cost, for example, of official sponsorship for candidates and entire parties by big business - a practice that in other countries the Americans themselves expose as corrupt. In recent years, this has been compounded by a pan-American fad not to recognise the results of failed elections, repeatedly recount votes, sue and bring crowds of supporters to the street after each defeat. In other countries, this turns out not to be a fake "storming of the Capitol", but bloody excesses and coups d'etat.

Why this disregard for the basic norms of democracy in a country for which it is a religion? American society is full of contradictions, divided by impenetrable barriers and less and less resembles the "beacon of freedom". It is even possible that the America that we knew is living out its last years, after which it will not have a democratic future at all.

Americans about the United States: the country has lost its way

January opinion polls in the United States showed a record drop in the approval rating of incumbent President Joe Biden. If the presidential election were held today, he would not have won it. And the closer the date of a new battle for the top post, the worse the electoral prospects of the leader of the Democrats look.

Here are the latest ratings of reputable social services in the category "approval/disapproval of the work of the US president":

- Ipsos: 41% of respondents approve of Biden's work, 56% disapprove (data as of February 3);

- IBD / TIPP: 38% approve, 48% disapprove (data as of February 7);

- YouGov: 42% approve, 49% disapprove (data as of February 1);

- Rasmussen Reports: 43% approve, 56% disapprove (data as of February 7);

- Morning Consult: 41% approve, 51% disapprove (data as of February 3);

- Public Policy Polling: 40% approve, 49% disapprove (data as of February 2).

Indexes from FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics, which combine the results of these and other opinion polls into an integral table in real time, give a disappointing verdict: the level of American’s approval of Joe Biden today ranges from 40.9-41.2%, and disapproval - around 52.8-53.8%.

But back in August, everything was different - the “green” branch on the charts was significantly higher than the "red" one. The turning point, perhaps, was the surrender of Kabul and the flight of American troops from Afghanistan in the same month. This foreign policy fiasco overshadowed the domestic political agenda, which is traditionally more important for US residents. But even it is unlikely to shake Biden's position for a long time, if not for the weight of domestic problems.

In fact, the approval rating of "Sleepy Joe" among all categories of citizens, including party members, was knocked down not by the Afghan catastrophe, but by off-the-scale inflation with an unprecedented jump in prices, rising unemployment and the terrible situation with the COVID-19 pandemic in the country, which led, among other things, to interruptions in the supply of goods to stores. As of February 1, according to a detailed YouGov survey, only 27% of Americans believe that their country is moving in the right direction. While 61% believe that the US has lost its way.

And although the election of a new White House master is still far away, the falling approval rating of its current occupant affects the positions of the Democratic Party as much as the problems in the economy. If the situation is not corrected, the "donkey party" risks losing many of its representatives in power this year.

Biden's curve will continue to fall

Recall that today the "blue" control both the House of Representatives (222 Congressmen-Democrats against 212 Republicans with one empty seat) and the Senate (50 people out of 100 plus the vote of US Vice President Kamala Harris). But everything may change on November 8, 2022, when the country will hold midterm elections, in which candidates will compete for all 435 seats in the lower house of Congress and for 34 seats in the upper one.

In addition, residents of 36 states and three territories will have to re-elect their governors this year. And this is almost more important, since the state leadership determines local policies in such areas as health (including measures against COVID-19), education and taxes. In addition, governors can sign or block changes to the electoral law, which is extremely important in the run-up to 2024.

And the dependence on Biden’s approval rating here is the most direct. It is noted that midterm elections in the United States are traditionally more successful for the party whose candidate previously lost the battle for the White House. The second pattern is that the worse Americans feel about the president, the more seats his party loses at various levels in midterm elections. And the third rule: as we approach the midterm elections, things tend to get worse for the ruling party.

Of course, “Sleepy Joe” still has nine months to try to correct the deplorable picture - at the cost, for example, of some high-profile victory at the international level. But it's not just objective reality that plays against him, but also relentless statistics: for 9 of the 11 previous midterm elections, current presidents approached with a worse approval rating than at the beginning of the same year. This means that Biden's "curve" will continue to fall.

Which party will win the 2022 elections? Everything suggests that this party will be the Republicans. It is already clear that in the governor's office, where 28 out of 50 seats belong to the "elephant party", it will continue to dominate. After a non-obvious victory in 2020, a new redistribution of electoral districts was started in the country, but even this is more likely to strengthen the position of Republicans.

Forecasts for the congressional elections from January 2022 are also mostly favourable for the "reds": they are preferred by the majority of opinion polls in the United States. The overall margin between Republicans and Democrats increased to almost two percentage points (44.3% vs. 42.4% as of February 7). In any case, on one of the sites where political bets are made, the full advantage is on the side of the "elephant party": its victory in the election of new senators looks more than likely, and in the House of Representatives elections - completely indisputable.

But how can the Democrats ever lose when they have money and the media in their hands? Unfortunately, as the Monmouth University Public Opinion Polling Institute found out in late January, Biden's trillion-dollar spending under the “Build Back Better” plan did not help his party at all, but rather caused irritation among ordinary Americans who were dissatisfied with the choice of priorities for spending money. As for trust in the media, according to a recent study carried out by the Edelman advisory group, among supporters of the "blue" it fell in 2021 by 5 points, to 55%, and among supporters of the "red" - by 13 points, to a measly 24%.

So far, it looks like the Democratic Party will lose the 2022 elections, and its candidate will lose the 2024 presidential election. Even now, judging by a number of polls, Donald Trump, who has gone into the shadows, is able to win against Biden, who is constantly on screens. Moreover, "Big Donald" himself believes that in a couple of years he will regain the White House.

Almost the only chance for Biden to win is a feud in the camp of Republicans, whose bosses may turn away from the extravagant ex-president. However, the second most popular "red" governor (of Florida) Ron Desantis is only a few points behind "Sleepy Joe" and is quite capable of making up for them in the event of Trump's withdrawal from the race.

How did the current president respond to this? "I don't believe the polls," he said at a news conference on January 19. But Biden is not the entire Democratic Party. Soberly assessing the situation, the "blues" understand that they can not do without tricks. Let's talk about the most egregious of them.

What is "New York" in Spanish?

On January 9, 2022, a bill came into force in New York by a decision of the City Council (33 votes in favour, 14 against), which allowed 800,000 foreigners living in the city to vote in municipal elections. More precisely, legally residing in the city for only 30 days.

The new Commissioner of the New York Department of Transportation, the Democrat Ydanis Rodriguez, who was born and lived in the Dominican Republic until the age of 18, became the author and main propagandist of the bill. A former taxi driver himself, in 2016 he achieved the adoption of another wonderful law, according to which drivers of New York taxis no longer need to know English.

The new norm under the eloquent slogan "Our city, our voice" successfully passed through the mayor's sieve: both the old mayor of the metropolis, Bill de Blasio, and the new, black Eric Adams (both, of course, Democrats), refused to veto it. But if retired de Blasio still tried to object, then Adams directly supported the bill, recalling that in his native Brooklyn, 47% of residents do not actually speak English at home.

What are 800,000 new voters for the largest city in the United States? This is a huge figure: for comparison, only 1.125 million people out of 5 million voters participated in the just-held mayoral elections. In other words, in a year (this is the term of the moratorium stipulated in the Rodriguez law), citizens of other states will begin to determine the future of New York.

Here you can speculate about the essence of citizenship in the global world or about the rights of migrants who work and use the infrastructure of cities on an equal basis with indigenous people. But what is more interesting is what all this will lead to on the scale of the United States?

Five years ago, according to some sources, about 25 million people without American citizenship lived in this country, including about 10.5 million illegal migrants. It is noteworthy that no one knows the exact figure, since in June 2019, the Supreme Court refused to allow the Trump administration to include the question of citizenship in the population census conducted a year later. Although it is the census data, in accordance with the US Constitution, that serves as the basis for recalculating the number of state electors in presidential elections and congressmen in the House of Representatives.

What is clear is that with Biden's arrival in the White House, the scale of migration to America has increased - to the obvious delight of the Democratic Party, whose values and policies are shared by the overwhelming number of newcomers. That is, future voters.

As we can see, in contrast to Russia, where permanent residents of foreign countries, holders of a residence permit and registration, can vote in municipal elections if a number of conditions are met, even control over migrants is still not properly established in the US. It is not very clear how many of them there are in general and how they differ from citizens.

"If the Democrats can so blatantly disrupt elections in America's largest city, then they can do it anywhere,” said Republican National Committee Chairwoman Ronna Romney McDaniel, after which her fellow party members sued Adams.

Can they do it? They are already doing it! As of December 2021, at least 15 municipalities in the United States have allowed foreigners to vote in some or all local elections, and 14 states have no barriers to doing so (except for a 1996 federal law that New York spat on with the “Empire State Building”). And, for example, in "blue" California, where the right to vote is automatically granted to all owners of a driver's license, there is a rule according to which a foreigner who accidentally received such a right is exempt from responsibility for voting.

By the way, the novel New York bill also allows former illegal migrants who were illegally brought to the United States as children and subsequently granted amnesty by the government to vote. But even more disconcerting is the fact that even today's illegal immigrants - that is, strictly speaking, delinquents - are capable of coming to the ballot box.

"Does anyone really believe that the electoral division will investigate the legal status of any foreigner who registers to vote? asks the perplexed American lawyer Hans von Spakovsky. "Of course, a lot of illegal foreigners will now go to the polls."

Of course, it is unlikely that "non-citizens" legally or illegally residing in the United States will be eligible to vote in the 2024 presidential election. But weak controls and loopholes in the law, such as the California norm, are pushing them to do so. The trend, as they say, is obvious. In any case, already in 2008, every ninth foreigner living in America participated in elections at various levels. Why should there be fewer of them now, if the "donkey party" is so desperate for their votes?

There is every reason to fear that Democrats in the United States are willing to sacrifice democracy itself to retain power. And the tactic of stuffing the votes of citizens of foreign countries in the course of voting that determine the future of America is not the only technology that we will get acquainted with in the near future. There is no doubt that the Republicans will also try to find a "decent response". One can only wonder what will eventually remain of American democracy, which Washington sets as an example to all of humanity.