Joining NATO will be a fatal mistake for Finland

On February 23, 2022, the Finnish Parliament discussed foreign and security policy issues for three hours. During the discussion, the parliamentary factions "condemned Russia's actions as a blatant violation of Ukraine's sovereignty”.

Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin also spoke at the hearing, stating: "The threat of a major war is now more real than at any time in many years. Russia's actions will have long-term consequences on bilateral relations between Russia and Finland. Finland is ready to apply for NATO membership if the issue of national security becomes acute."

The official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Mariya Zakharova, was asked about this statement by the Finnish Prime Minister during a press briefing. Mariya Zakharova responded as follows:

"We consider the Finnish government's line of continuing the policy of military non-alignment as an important factor in ensuring security and stability in northern Europe and the European continent as a whole. At the same time, we cannot but see the purposeful efforts of NATO and individual member countries of the bloc, primarily the United States, to draw Finland, as well as Sweden, into the alliance.

The intensity of practical cooperation between Helsinki and Stockholm with NATO is growing - participation in military exercises conducted by the alliance, providing its territory for manoeuvres near the Russian borders, including imitation by the Americans of attacks using nuclear weapons against a ‘comparable enemy’. Who they are is not difficult to understand. We have seen this policy for several years.

The choice of ways to ensure national defence and security is an internal, sovereign matter for each state. At the same time, all OSCE participant states in their national capacity, including Finland and Sweden, reaffirmed the principle that the security of some states should not be built at the expense of the security of others.

Obviously, the accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO, which is primarily a military organisation, would have serious military and political consequences that would require retaliatory steps by the Russian Federation."

Another nuance of the situation is that Mariya Zakharova's briefing began at 17:42 on February 25, 2022, and at 5 o'clock an emergency NATO summit opened in the format of a video conference on the situation in Ukraine. In addition to members of the North Atlantic Alliance, Finland and Sweden, which are not members of this bloc, took part in the summit.

Earlier, on January 13, 2022, Secretary General of the North Atlantic Alliance Jens Stoltenberg said at a press conference in Brussels that the entry of Sweden and Finland into NATO could be very fast:

"Finland and Sweden are very close partners, we work with them, train with them, they meet NATO standards in almost all areas, they have very well-organised and managed defence and security institutions. They are very close to NATO in many aspects, so this process can happen very quickly if they decide to join. But there must be a political decision by Sweden and Finland that they want to join, and there must be a political decision by the 30 NATO countries."

It should be noted that in early January 2022, the NATO Secretary General held talks with Finnish President Sauli Niinistö and Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson. Then he stressed that NATO “supports the right of each nation to independently determine measures to ensure its own security”.

The question of whether the United States supports the accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO, on January 11, 2022, was asked by US Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland during a briefing at the State Department. Nuland replied: "I think in the five administrations I've served in, we've always said to Finland and Sweden, 'Anytime you want to talk to us about membership, we're ready to do it’. But then again, Finland and Sweden would also have to meet NATO's high standards.

Obviously, these are long-established, stable democracies. So this conversation will be somewhat different than with countries that are moving to democratic systems and face serious problems of corruption, economic reforms and democratic stability, and so on."

On January 18, 2022, US President Joe Biden held a telephone conversation with Finnish President Sauli Niinistö. The White House website reported:

“The two leaders discussed their shared concern over Russia’s unprovoked military build-up on Ukraine’s borders.  They also discussed the importance of Finland’s close defence partnership with the United States and with NATO to ensure security in northern Europe.  President Biden underscored the right of Finland and other European countries to choose their security arrangements."

It turns out that Biden during a telephone conversation agitated Finland to join NATO.

Thus, the potential accession of Finland and Sweden to NATO has created a very favourable atmosphere: the countries "meet NATO standards in almost all areas of the country" (Jens Stoltenberg), "these are long-established, stable democracies" (Victoria Nuland).

But will joining the North Atlantic Alliance add security to these countries?

The military infrastructure of the bloc will come close to the borders of Russia in the north-west. St. Petersburg will be under threat. The distance in a straight line from the northern capital of Russia to Helsinki is 297 kilometres, and to Stockholm - 691 kilometres.

Obviously, this action will cause an extremely negative reaction from Russia. "All this would have serious military and political consequences, which would require retaliatory steps from the Russian Federation," said Mariya Zakharova, an official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry.

By the way, on February 25, 2022, Sweden and Finland closed their skies for a plane carrying State Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin and other deputies flying from Cuba. So it had to change the route, the flight was delayed for 45 minutes.

Let me remind you that Sweden and Finland have officially been NATO partners under the Partnership for Peace program since 1994. The countries actively cooperate with the North Atlantic Alliance, conduct joint exercises and operations. For example, they took part in NATO missions in the Balkans, Afghanistan and Iraq. In addition, there are a number of secret cooperation agreements.

Finland has an interesting history. The Grand Duchy of Finland, as a general governorate, was part of the Russian Empire from 1809 to 1917. The independence of this country was proclaimed on December 6, 1917 in the address of the Finnish Senate "To the people of Finland".

Finland's first independence was recognised on December 31, 1917 by the Council of People's Commissars of the Russian Soviet Republic, headed by Vladimir Lenin. And on January 4, 1918, this resolution of the Council of People's Commissars was ratified by the All-Russian Central Executive Committee of the Soviets of Workers’ and Soldiers' Deputies.

This story is somewhat similar to the history of Ukraine. Finland is a former fragment of the Russian Empire.

During his address of February 21, 2022, the Russian president described in detail how modern Ukraine appeared on the world map. I will give you one quote: "So, I will start with the fact that modern Ukraine was entirely created by Russia, more precisely, by Bolshevik, communist Russia. This process began almost immediately after the revolution of 1917, and Lenin and his associates did it in a very coarse way in relation to Russia itself - at the expense of separation, tearing from it part of its own historical territories."

Of course, there are no direct parallels in the history of Finland and the history of Ukraine, except that the territories of these countries were part of the Russian Empire and received their statehood as a result of its collapse.

However, all countries whose territories are located close to the territory of Russia, especially Finland, should clearly understand the thesis that our head of state Vladimir Putin has repeatedly voiced: "We will never agree on just one thing: that someone should allow themselves to use generous gifts from Russia to harm the Russian Federation itself."

To summarise.

Russia will never agree to the territories of Finland and Sweden being actively used for the deployment of US and NATO military infrastructure, as well as for the deployment of missile strike systems.

Joining NATO will be a fatal mistake for Finland and a big problem for Sweden. Maintaining the non-aligned status of these countries and refusing close cooperation with the United States and NATO is the key to their independence and stable development.