Russia must act immediately and without regard to dialogue with the US

On January 21, 2022, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken met in Geneva. After this event, the parties held separate press conferences. Let's review a number of statements made by Antony Blinken and assess what they mean in terms of the position of the United States on Russian proposals regarding security guarantees for Russia from the United States and NATO.

In his opening remarks at the press conference, the US Secretary of State identified the purpose of the meeting with the Russian Foreign Minister: "Our objective was to determine whether Russia is prepared to take the diplomatic path and other necessary steps to de-escalate the situation in Ukraine and, ultimately, to resolve our differences through diplomacy and through dialogue.”

Let me remind you that on December 15, 2021, Russia sent to the United States and the NATO leadership its proposals on security guarantees for our country in the form of two draft documents: the Treaty between the Russian Federation and the United States of America on Security Guarantees and the Agreement on Measures to Ensure the Security of the Russian Federation and the Member States of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation.

As can be seen from Blinken's quote above, Washington is trying to narrow Russia's package proposals on security guarantees to the situation with Ukraine. At the same time, Russia's cornerstone demands are the rejection of NATO expansion towards our borders, the rejection of militarily developing territories near our borders and the withdrawal of the North Atlantic Alliance to positions as of 1997. And this means, among other things, the withdrawal of foreign troops from the territory of Bulgaria, Romania and Poland and the Baltic countries.

The next quote from Antony Blinken: " I made clear to Minister Lavrov that there are certain issues and fundamental principles that the United States and our partners and allies are committed to defend.  That includes those that would impede the sovereign right of the Ukrainian people to write their own future.  There is no trade space there – none.”

The US Secretary of State says that there will be no rejection of the expansion of NATO and the admission of new members to it, in this particular quote – Ukraine. Russia, for its part, is categorically against the expansion of the North Atlantic Alliance and the entry of Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova into it.

Our country also supports the preservation of the non-aligned status of Sweden and Finland. The processing of these countries for the purpose of joining NATO has been going on for a long time. However, thanks to Russian proposals on security guarantees, this activity has come out into the public plane.

The US Secretary of State also spoke about the format of negotiations on current issues: "Foreign Minister Lavrov and I also talked about the way forward.  Let me say as well that he heard from us and from me that what is for us an inviolable rule: nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine, nothing about NATO without NATO, nothing about Europe without Europe."

Blinken's reference to the opinion of allies and partners covers the desire of the Americans to smear the diplomatic dialogue with Russia on various platforms and take it away from a specific conversation on topics of interest to our country. In addition, in such implementation of negotiations, the negative response of the United States itself on the issue of security guarantees for Russia will be masked under the negative opinion of allies and partners.

For the Russian Federation, as in the past for the USSR, the main negotiator on the issue of security guarantees is the United States. Strategic nuclear parity is maintained between our countries. The USA is the recognised leader of the collective West. And so far it is the only country in the world that most fits the definition of a superpower based on its military, political and economic power.

As Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov put it recently, NATO is "the USA plus”. Therefore, for Russia, in particular, it makes no sense to take into account the position of "lightly armed Lilliputians" (in the terminology of the American magazine The National Interest) from Eastern Europe.

The fact that the American side will still submit a written response to Russian proposals on security guarantees should be considered the only significant outcome of the talks between Sergey Lavrov and Antony Blinken. Ideally, Russia expects a written response on each individual item of the draft documents proposed by it: the Treaty between the Russian Federation and the United States of America on Security Guarantees and the Agreement on Measures to Ensure the Security of the Russian Federation and the Member States of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation.

However, the Americans have a rather different view of things. As Antony Blinken put it at his press conference: "And again, what was agreed today, which was that we will share with Russia a response to the concerns it’s raised, our own concerns, and put some ideas on the table for consideration.  And then we plan to meet again after Russia’s had an opportunity to look at that paper and we’ll see where we go from there.”

Formally, in addition to the refusal of the United States and NATO (which are still in oral form) to meet our key issues of proposals on security guarantees, Russia also needs to receive a written refusal, so that there would be no conversations in the spirit of "we did not understand each other". The text, written on paper and appropriately designed, disciplines, gives seriousness and even some irreversibility to the situation.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, at his press conference following the meeting with the US Secretary of State, named the date of receipt of a written response from the Americans until January 30, 2022: "US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said that he was satisfied with the exchange of views that took place, which will help them next week (it was stressed several times) to provide us with a written reaction."

According to Sergey Lavrov, at least one more meeting of the foreign ministers of Russia and the United States should take place: "We are waiting for an official response ‘on paper’ to our proposals, after which we plan another meeting at our level."

Thus, the diplomatic dialogue between Russia and the United States on the issue of security guarantees will continue. However, the Russian side is not in the mood to stretch it over time. Moscow expects to receive a written response from Washington within a week, as promised by the American side.

Most likely, the US’ response will be a written refusal on the key positions of the Russian proposals on security guarantees, which has already been expressed verbally at the Russian-US and Russian-NATO negotiating platforms. Dialogue on secondary issues on the agenda is of little interest to Russia, because it will not solve the problem of our national security.

At the same time, the ongoing diplomatic dialogue between the Russian Federation and the United States does not limit Moscow in any way in terms of implementing measures to protect the country's state sovereignty. And these events should not be postponed or put on pause. Our so-called "partners" do not deny themselves anything. Here are some examples.

The Lithuanian Ministry of Defence announced on January 21, 2021 that the Baltic states will supply Ukraine with anti-aircraft and anti-tank missiles of American production: "Lithuania and Latvia will transfer Stinger anti-aircraft missiles to Ukraine, and Estonia will send Javelin anti-tank missiles." These deliveries of American-made weapons to Ukraine were previously approved by the United States.

As for the United States itself, during the year of Joe Biden's presidency alone, American weapons worth about $650 million were delivered to Ukraine. As Antony Blinken put it on January 21 , 2022 : "We continue to provide this assistance. We have additional deliveries scheduled for the coming weeks.

By the way, the White House has confirmed its plans to transfer Russian-made Mi-17V-5 helicopters, previously owned by the Afghan Air Force, to Ukraine. A bill on the supply of lend-lease weapons to Ukraine has been submitted to the US Senate. This initiative will help to remove obstacles to the provision of military equipment to Ukraine and speed up their delivery.

Britain is also trying very hard. London organised an air bridge with Ukraine and handed over to its Armed Forces about 1500-2000 NLAW anti-tank complexes. In addition, about 30 British servicemen from the Ranger regiment of the newly formed special operations brigade of the ground forces arrived on Ukrainian territory by the same planes to train the Ukrainian military in the use of these weapons.

Thus, the diplomatic dialogue with Washington should in no way constrain Russia's actions or influence the implementation of practical steps for a military-technical response to the most serious challenge to national security in connection with the approach of NATO and its military infrastructure to the Russian borders. The United States and NATO did not stop for a moment during the negotiations, they even accelerated, the geopolitical offensive of the West continues.

The military-political situation is such that Russia needs to act immediately and without regard to the dialogue with the United States. Only our practical steps will be able to convince the collective West of the seriousness of our intentions and make it negotiable. One step is worth a thousand words.