Ukraine's accession to the EU will inevitably lead to its paralysis or collapse

At the summit of EU leaders, which is scheduled for June 23-24, Kiev is expected to be granted the status of a candidate for EU membership. This was announced by the Minister for European Affairs at the French Foreign Ministry Clément Beaune in an interview with the radio station Europe 1. According to the politician, Ukraine's entry into the EU will not be fast and will take up to 20 years, but the main thing is that all EU countries have reached a "full consensus" on granting Kiev candidate status.

It is no exaggeration to say that this decision could be the beginning of the inevitable end of the EU as it exists. And this should not be considered a positive change for the countries that created the face of European civilisation.

In this case, the pessimistic forecast stems from the logic of what is happening, including from statements that have already been made and continue to be made by various circles in the EU, in Ukraine and far beyond the European continent.

Representatives of the Kiev regime took the news about the practically guaranteed status of the candidate with the expected joy. In addition, comments were shared by those European politicians who "feed" Ukraine, acting as its lobbyists and lawyers.

On June 21, in Ukrayinskaya Pravda an article was penned by former Estonian President Kersti Kaljulaid and President of the Munich Security Conference Foundation Council Wolfgang Ischinger, who expressed hope for Ukraine to become a "normal European state" in connection with the EU's position. Both politicians are members of the supervisory board of “YES”, a Ukrainian organisation that deals with Kiev's integration into the European space.

Having listed the merits of Ukraine, such as abstract "progress", "the clear will of brave Ukrainian people to join the EU" and "civil society's capability to support their leaders in necessary institutional development", the authors call for forcing Ukraine's accession to the EU. Why the need to create "particularly strong" support programs, such as Phare or the Instrument for Pre-Accession Assistance (IPA). According to politicians, the IPA will allow Ukraine to “overcome corruption and build independent institutions strong enough for the single market”.

Prime Minister of Ukraine Denis Shmygal explained what the IPA is in an accessible language. Financial assistance for countries preparing to join the EU will be available to Ukraine through the IPA program, which can be provided through grants, investments or as technical assistance.

The size of the likely IPA program for Ukraine was not announced. But it will obviously be large. The head of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), Samantha Power, on Tuesday, June 21, during the public talk show "The Way Forward", where she answered questions from the president of the World Bank Group, David Malpass, outlined the monthly spending of the Kiev regime "on war" in the amount of $4-5 billion. The restoration of the Ukrainian economy, even if it is formal, is unlikely to require less investment.

Old Europe vs. New Europe

An extremely serious symptom illustrating the already existing split in the EU should be considered that it is not in Brussels, Berlin or Paris that they want to distribute financial aid at all. Quite specific countries, or more precisely, one country, are very active in the future allocation of money to Ukraine. Back on May 29, Deputy Prime Minister of the Polish government Jacek Sasin, in an interview with Polish Radio, said that the financial centre of the upcoming restoration of Ukraine should be located in Warsaw.

The top leadership of Poland from the very beginning of the special military operation actually officially announced the taking of Ukraine under guardianship. A vivid confirmation of this was the visit of Polish President Duda to Kiev, as well as his statements that soon the Polish-Ukrainian border "will cease to exist”. By the words of the Secretary of the Russian Security Council Nikolay Patrushev, "apparently, Poland is already moving to seize western Ukrainian territories”.

Simultaneously with the announcement of claims to Ukraine and finances in favour of its restoration, the Polish leadership criticised the restrained position of some European countries regarding Ukrainian membership. On May 23, the head of the International Policy Office of the Polish President's office, Jakub Kumoch, said that "the richest countries in Europe have no reason to be afraid of Ukraine”. He also added that Polish President Andrzej Duda will personally lobby for granting Ukraine the appropriate candidate status.

It is noteworthy that Ukraine's membership – or at least candidacy – in the EU is being lobbied by peripheral EU countries. These are Poland, the Baltic states, the Czech Republic and a number of other countries. All these states are united by extreme "Anglocentricity", Poland and the Baltic states are officially included in the projected British "axis" London-Baltic States-Warsaw-Kiev and in the future Ankara. The geopolitical aspects of this "axis" and their danger to Russia and, importantly, Europe were considered in separate materials of RUSSTRAT (link 1, link 2).

In this logic, it is not unusual that the countries of old Europe (Austria, the Netherlands, France, Germany, etc.) are by no means eager to accept Ukraine into their ranks as soon as possible, recommending that Kiev focus on "approaching standards" and "improving institutions to the level of European ones”.

It is difficult to imagine a situation in which Kiev will become a fully-fledged member of the EU in the foreseeable future. The last country to be accepted into the EU was Croatia (July 2013), which took 10 years from the moment of applying to membership. Currently, EU membership is expected in Turkey (since 1987), North Macedonia (since 2004), Montenegro (since 2008), Albania (since 2009) and Serbia (since 2009).

Simultaneously with Ukraine (in February 2022), Moldova and Georgia applied for EU membership. On June 17, the European Commission recommended granting Ukraine and Moldova candidate status, while Georgia was refused.

However, the position has already been quite clearly formed - Ukraine does not need to join the EU, the status of a candidate for EU membership will open up abundant funding for the restoration of Ukrainian territory and bringing the country "in line with standards". And Poland will manage these resources, together with the administrative management and the turnout procedure.

It is worth emphasising that we are talking about the disposal of pan-European money. Poland has few resources of its own – Warsaw receives about €50 billion from the EU, half of which is on credit, and it's afraid of losing this ration. Poland's budget deficit (minus €6.5 billion) for 2022 predicts that revenues will amount to about €100 billion. In other words, in the Polish budget, loans and subsidies amount to 50%, and we are talking about pan-European money.

How much money will be spent under the pretext of upgrading Ukraine to "EU standards" depends on the specific conditions, first of all, the terms of the procedure for Ukraine to gain full membership. The head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, noted that Ukraine is already 70% compliant with EU standards, Kiev has only to carry out judicial reform, including changing the Constitutional Court, adopt anti-corruption and anti-oligarchic laws, and fight money laundering and other vices.

By granting Ukraine the status of an EU candidate, which implies launching an IPA support mechanism, the European Union will lose a significant amount of money. If Ukraine becomes a fully-fledged member, the losses may be much more serious.

The EU's Verkhovna Rada

One of the main results of Ukrainian membership in the EU for Kiev will be the opportunity to directly influence important vectors of European development at the expense of its deputies in the European Parliament. The main function of the European Parliament is legislative, which it shares with the Council of the EU.

Draft laws are initiated by the European Commission, but the Parliament can ask the Commission to develop a particular bill, for example, based on citizens' proposals. In addition, parliamentarians make decisions on the signing of international agreements by the European Union.

The second function of the European Parliament is to oversee the activities of all EU structures. The European Parliament approves or rejects the board of the European Commission and its President, discusses monetary policy with the European Central Bank, and can put forward a vote of no confidence in the European Commission and dismiss it. Last but not least, MPs approve the budget of the European Union and monitor its implementation.

Ukraine will be able to apply for a significant number of deputies, although in this case the number will be determined comprehensively. After Britain leaves the EU, the interests of 447 million EU residents are represented by 705 MEPs. The number of seats that each country receives in the European Parliament is directly proportional to the size of its population (at the same time, there should be no less than 6 seats and no more than 96).

Today, the largest number of deputies is represented by the largest state, Germany - 96. The smallest number of seats, at the level of the lower threshold of 6 deputies, is allocated to small countries like Malta, Cyprus, Luxembourg and Estonia.

Theoretically, Ukraine with an official and fully virtual population of 40 million people could claim the number of seats equivalent to Poland or Spain – up to 60 parliamentarians. According to the rules of formation of the European Parliament, the smaller a country is, the more seats it gets per capita. So, if one German MP represents more than 800,000 of its citizens, then a Maltese MP represents 80,000.

In one way or another, there are more than 200 national parties in the European Parliament, which are united into eight political factions or groups. In combination with Poland and the Baltic states, future Ukrainian deputies will be able to assemble a fairly solid group that can, if not push through the necessary decisions, then in any case torpedo those that harm the interests of the main curator of eastern Europe – Britain.

In addition to voting, the influence will extend to expert lobbying groups, of which there are about 9,000 in the European Parliament. Or more, since the registration of lobbying groups is not voluntary.

Experts familiar with Ukrainian political traditions can easily imagine how effective the "Ukrainised" European Parliament will be – where, as expected, the most exalted representatives of the Kiev political community will get to.

It is obvious that attracting Ukraine as a fully-fledged EU member as quickly as possible will be a strategic task for the EU countries that are orientated towards Britain. And it will not bring anything good to the European Union, whose main GDP is still concentrated in Germany and France.

Eastward shift

Major publications that are hard to suspect of sympathising with Russia have begun to write about the most serious problems that the EU will face if it continues its current course.

“Despite the celebratory rhetoric in Brussels about the European Union’s surprisingly robust response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine—which just culminated in the European Commission’s recommendation of membership candidacy to Ukraine—the war has not united the bloc in any unprecedented or transformative way.

In fact, it’s having exactly the opposite effect: Beneath the soaring vista of Ukraine as a catalyst for a more muscular and geopolitically effective EU lie deep divisions, shifting allegiances, and a much more complex reality,” writes Foreign Policy.

The publication calls the situation of Germany and France nothing but a failure. Central and Eastern European countries know that their security, perhaps even their continued existence as independent countries, depends entirely on NATO, not the EU.

The EU has demonstrated its inability to stand up to Russia in any meaningful way, which means that "the key players in Europe's defence for the coming decades will not be the influential EU countries that are traditionally friendly to Russia-Germany and France, but the countries of Central and Eastern Europe, the Baltic states and Northern Europe, the United States and Britain."

Recently, FP notes, representatives of the "new Europe" are behaving more and more confidently. Latvian Deputy Prime Minister Artis Pabriks described French President Emmanuel Macron's numerous attempts to reach out to the Kremlin as an example of "so-called Western leaders who have a clear need for self-deprecation combined with complete detachment from political reality”. Marko Mihkelson, chairman of the Estonian Parliament's foreign Affairs Committee, was equally scathing of the leaders of Germany and France.

There is a huge gap between the financial and economic bloc of "old Europe" and the political ambitions of "new", which, moreover, is orientated towards London and, to a lesser extent, Washington.

The current Polish government's vision of the future of the EU as what Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki calls "a union of strong, equal and free nations" is a direct challenge to the visions of Paris, Berlin and Brussels for integration while maintaining the current economic and political status quo.

A significant part of the political processes in the EU will move forward with increased difficulties in the near future, and the problem will be qualitatively aggravated if Ukraine is admitted to the EU. The divergence in the worldview of "old" and "new" Europe is rapidly becoming existential - the economic interests of Germany and France are mostly opposed to the tasks of Britain and the United States, which are increasingly oriented towards Eastern Europe.

Poland does not hide the fact that its goal is to dismantle the existing system of relations in the EU. After the visit to Kiev of French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, MEP and former Polish Foreign Minister Witold Waszczykowski stated that the politicians of Germany and France "will bet on the return of Russia to the economic circulatory system of Europe”. According to the MEP, lucrative deals with Russia "only strengthen the hegemony of Germany and France in Europe”.

In other words, Britain's plans, which Warsaw follows, include eliminating the EU's "circulatory system" where Germany and France are the main centres of power, and economic "circulation" is largely provided by cheap energy carriers from Russia.

At the end of the 15th St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, Vladimir Putin stressed that Russia has nothing against Ukraine's admission to the EU at all. Perhaps there is still time for Western leaders to read between the lines and draw salutary conclusions for the European Union as we know it. Otherwise, the European Union will face inevitable and painful reforms in the foreseeable future.