How Erdogan is "saving the world from hunger"

During the visit of Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to Turkey, it is expected that a so-called "Roadmap" to create a proposed corridor for the export of about 20 million tons of grain from Ukrainian ports to world markets will be signed. It is also planned to open a branch in Istanbul to ensure the passage of tankers along this corridor.

It is also reported that Turkey and Russia are jointly ready to take part in the mine clearing of Ukrainian ports in order to ensure the export of grain from the country. The corresponding statement has already been made by Lavrov. According to him, this operation should be carried out "without any attempts to strengthen the military potential of Ukraine and cause damage to Russia."

This is how the implementation of the agreements reached during the telephone conversation between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin will begin. But this is how the plots of the created intrigue are revealed, when the West suddenly started talking about the "onset of a major global food crisis" in conjunction with the Ukrainian crisis."

Moreover, this is also being talked about in Turkey. Thus, Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu claimed that Turkey's priority now is "to take measures to avoid a global food crisis by intensifying cooperation with both Ukraine and Russia."

But this mythology was destroyed by Russian President Putin in an interview with Russian TV. "It's a bluff. And here's why. Firstly, there are some objective things, I will tell you about them now. Approximately 800 million tons of grain and wheat are produced annually in the world.

Now we are told that Ukraine is ready to export 20 million tons. 20 million tons compared to what is produced in the world, 800 million tons, is 2.5%," he stressed. "But if we proceed from the fact that wheat makes up only 20% of the total food in the world, and this is true, this is not our data, this is UN data, then this means that these 20 million tons of Ukrainian wheat is 0.5%, which is the same as talking about nothing. This is first thing.

Secondly, 20 million tons of Ukrainian wheat is a potential export. To date, American official authorities also say that today Ukraine could export six million tons of wheat – according to our Ministry of Agriculture, this is not six, it is about five million tons,  but even, let's say, six, and this is the data of our Ministry of Agriculture, seven million tons of corn.

We understand that this is not much. In the current agricultural year - 2021-2022 - we export 37 million, and in 2022-2023, I think we will raise this export to 50 million tons. As for the export of Ukrainian grain, we do not prevent it.

And there are several ways to export grain. The first one. You are welcome, it is possible to export through ports that are under the control of Ukraine, primarily the Black Sea basin – Odessa and nearby ports. After all, it's not us who mined the approaches to the port – Ukraine mined them.

They must clear mines and collect ships from the seabed of the Black Sea that were specially sunk in order to make it difficult to enter these ports in the south of Ukraine. We are ready to do this, we will not use the situation of mine clearing to launch any attacks from the sea, I have already said this. This is the first.

Second. There is another possibility: the ports of the Sea of Azov – Berdyansk, Mariupol which are under our control, we are ready to ensure the smooth export of Ukrainian grain through these ports, among other things. You are welcome. The third. It is possible to export grain from Ukraine through the Danube and through Romania. Fourth. It is possible to do it through Hungary.

Fifth. It is possible to do it through Poland. Yes, there are certain technical problems there, because the track is different, it is necessary to change the carts. But it's just a matter of a few hours, and that's it. And finally, the simplest thing is the export through the territory of Belarus. The easiest and cheapest one, because from there it will go directly to the ports of the Baltic states, to the Baltic Sea and further – to anywhere in the world. But for this it is necessary to lift sanctions from Belarus. But that's not our issue."

So, apparently, the Turkish option has been chosen. More precisely, Moscow decided to support Ankara's "heightened concern" about the potential threat of a food crisis and de-actualised this problem. By all indications, the West associated with it the conduct of certain operational activities of its navy in the Black Sea, which does not suit both Russia and Turkey.

There were reports that Turkey's North Atlantic allies intended to build a "protective corridor" for the export of Ukrainian grain. Denmark announced that it would send American-made Harpoon anti-ship missiles to Kiev, and the UK began to coordinate with its NATO allies a possible plan to send warships to the Black Sea port of Odessa.

According to the plan, which The Times writes about, the allied naval forces intended to clear the territory around the Odessa port of mines before protecting cargo ships carrying vital products and deploying long-range missiles to deter "any attempts by Russia to interfere with the operation of this corridor." By the way, even UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres was involved in this operation. But it was thwarted thanks to the efforts of Moscow and Ankara.

Another thing is that the West is trying to cancel Russian grain, squeeze its business opportunities through so-called hidden sanctions, while accusing Russia of unleashing a "grain war", provoking hunger in the poorest countries.

In addition, last year, the US Department of Agriculture, for no apparent reason, lowered forecasts for the harvest of Russian grain by 12.5 million tons at once. This caused a sharp rise in world prices, wheat in the Black Sea ports jumped in price by $20 at once. It is likely that the speculators' calculation was for a rise in domestic prices, a ban on exports and Russia's withdrawal from the world market.

It was the price damper that saved us from the development of this catastrophic scenario, which protected the domestic market from volatility. But in the new season, according to Western experts, the only place in the world where a high grain harvest is expected will still be Russia. But for now, as the Turkish newspaper Yeni Şafak writes, Turkey is playing solo in the "saviour" combination. Russia does not object.

The truth is that the situation in Ukraine and the large-scale sanctions imposed against Russia by the United States and the European Union have led to violations of grain supplies, which increases the risk of a food crisis in a number of countries around the world.

But the official representative of the President of Turkey, İbrahim Kalın, believes that problems with the supply of Ukrainian grain to world markets can be solved within one or two weeks. We'll see. According to the American newspaper Politico, "the US administration will not agree to agreements on Ukrainian grain if they involve easing sanctions against Russia”. In all this story, it must be understood that Erdogan got out of another foreign policy impasse thanks to Vladimir Putin's subtle game. And Ankara should remember this.