"We need the Black Sea": the US is trying to punch a hole in the Montreux Convention

    How long will Turkey be able to resist the pressure?
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    Turkey's NATO allies, as if guided by the Ludendorff principle "first make a hole, the rest will take care of itself," are trying under any pretext to lead their warships into the Black Sea bypassing the Montreux Convention — and are putting pressure on Ankara.

    Ankara does not give in. Turkish Defence Minister Hulusi Akar once again stated: "We want the existing balances in the Black Sea basin not to be violated." Because otherwise, "there will be a high risk of the situation getting out of control”.

    Now there is not a single ship belonging to the navy of non-coastal states in the Black Sea. But the United States is not abandoning plans to create a NATO deployment force there with the involvement of Romania and Bulgaria.

    The Turks are concerned that a situation may be created in the Black Sea that allows for the possibility of the deliberate appearance of NATO ships in order to force Ankara to let them through the straits.

    On the one hand, Turkey does not want to spoil relations with Russia. On the other hand, it fears undermining its geopolitical influence in the region as a whole, and in the Black Sea basin in particular. It uses the 19th article of the convention - it says that warships of any state conducting hostilities are deprived of the right to pass through the straits. The exception is ships going to home ports.

    But how long will the Turks be able to resist the pressure? One thing is clear: Ankara will never allow a violation of the Montreux Convention if it continues to defend its national interests, as it is doing now. Otherwise, nothing will remain of its serious geopolitical weight in the region.

    Elena Panina, Director of the RUSSTRAT Institute

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