Will the Americans press Iran on oil?

Based on the modern political history of the Middle East, one can write a textbook on geopolitical chess, because there are often such clever multi-move combinations and equations with many unknowns, which are rarely solved by a direct lunge.

But the best key to understanding can be found through determining the real balance of forces and identifying objective circumstances in a given situation. It is from these positions that the mysterious missile strike on the new building of the US Consulate General in Erbil, the capital of Iranian Kurdistan, can be assessed.

The first mystery is that earlier missile strikes, as a rule, were carried out on Baghdad and its environs - the locations of American troops. At the same time, it took a lot of time to recognise the side that fired. No one was making any secrets right now.

The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) claimed responsibility for the strike. It was stated that they were hitting a secret Israeli facility located in the consulate building and that this was an act of retaliation for the Israeli bombing in Syria, where two high-ranking IRGC officers were killed.

After the Syrian operation, the IDF expected Iran to penetrate Israeli airspace from Lebanon, as Tehran usually acts with the hands of Shiite militias, whether in Lebanon or Iraq. But Iran, the Saudi channel Al Jazeera notes, struck "not Israel, but secret Israeli bases in Erbil”. This happens infrequently.

The second riddle. The Iran International agency reports that the missiles hit Erbil at exactly 01:20 – at the same time in January 2020, IRGC General Qasem Soleimani was killed as a result of an American drone strike. That is, the attack was given a symbolic meaning, although last year Tehran did not do anything special to coincide with the anniversary of the assassination attempt on Soleimani or his birthday.

The third riddle. The United States has not commented on the event in Erbil for some time, although they usually react quickly and violently to missile attacks in Baghdad. Washington spoke out later and quite calmly. The US State Department said that the attack was not directed against American facilities and there were no casualties.

The only thing is that the assistant to the US President for National Security, Jake Sullivan, on duty said that the Americans "together with the Prime Minister of Iraq and the leaders of Iraqi Kurdistan condemn the Iranian shelling of Erbil, the parties will work to bring Iran to justice”.

Many Middle Eastern experts explain Washington's behaviour by the desire to reach an agreement on the resumption of the nuclear agreement with Iran at the Vienna talks, and by the willingness of the Americans to make any concessions to compensate for the import of energy resources from Russia at the expense of Iranian oil.

In this regard, George Papadopoulos, Director of the Center for International Energy and Natural Resources Law at the London Center for International Law Practice, believes that "the strike on Erbil has become a test for the current head of the White House”.

But not just for Biden. It is also striking that against this background, some well-known Iranian publications began to actively plant the "idea" of the possibility of concluding a deal between Iran and the United States without the participation of Russia and outside the format of the Vienna talks. The anonymous assumptions of the negotiators were recently revealed by the European bureau of the Politico website.

Now the same Iranian publications hint that the shelling of the US consulate in Erbil was carried out by opponents of the agreement with Washington, who are building their own nuclear program. That is, allegedly the IRGC.

Mohammad Marandi, adviser to the Iranian delegation at the Vienna talks, demonstrated a curious reaction to the events in Erbil. He posted a video of the shelling on his Twitter and wrote: "This is just the beginning”.

Thus, opposing forces have shown themselves in Tehran. Some oppose the establishment of relations with the Americans. Others would like to exclude Iran's conflict with the United States and Israel in order to quickly get out of sanctions. They see the talks in Vienna, where a pause has been announced, as a real opportunity to conclude a deal between Washington and Tehran.

Meanwhile, in the administration of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, "voices" have already sounded in favour of entering into direct dialogue with the Americans, without intermediaries. But, according to the expert of the Gulf State Analytics analytical group Theodore Karasik, "the US’ refusal to exclude the IRGC - the official state structure - from the list of ‘terrorist organisations’ may stimulate the internal political struggle in Iran”.

What's next? The negotiation process in Vienna has run aground. EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell said that the text of the agreement is practically on the table, but the dialogue needs to be put on pause "due to external factors”, which, however, he did not name.

The New York Times, citing Iranian sources, claims that the nuclear agreement cannot be restored without Russia's participation. But theoretically, there remains the option of communication between Washington and Tehran, when other players turn only into potential intermediaries.

While there is behind-the-scenes bargaining going on between the parties, however, they cannot agree on their interests and opinions on certain aspects. And there is an alarming chronological coincidence. After Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud refused to talk to Biden about a possible increase in oil supplies, Tehran suspended negotiations with Saudi Arabia on regional security.