Free Donbass and the Black Sea region: the goals of the second stage of Operation Z

During the second stage of the special operation, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are to establish full control over the Donbass, the south of Ukraine, and provide a corridor to Transnistria. This was stated by Deputy Commander of the Central Military District (CMD) Major General Rustam Minnekayev at the annual meeting of the Union of Defence Industry Enterprises of the Sverdlovsk Region on April 22, 2022.

According to Minnekayev, control over Donbass will create a land corridor to Crimea and affect vital facilities of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, as well as open access to Transnistria, where the facts of oppression of the Russian-speaking population are noted.

The specification of the "task of the second stage" makes it possible to interpret the current situation on the fronts and give a definite forecast for the near future.

First of all, the plan outlined by the command is almost impossible to implement without first defeating a large nazi group entrenched between Izyum and Gulyai-Pole, whose ranks number from 40,000 to 60,000 people, which would be a constant looming threat to the liberated coast of the Azov Sea.

Since the territory of Mariupol has ceased to pose a systemic danger to the rear of the allied forces, and the possibility of freeing up forces previously tied down in Mariupol has arisen, in the near future we should expect a concentration of efforts on defeating the enemy grouping concentrated on the borders of the DPR and LPR.

This is evidenced by the nature of the fighting known by the morning of April 22. Allied forces are engaged in enemy-shackling battles near Kharkov and Nikolayev, they control the direction to Zaporozhye-Dnepropetrovsk, the most fierce battle with the use of artillery, MLRS and aviation goes along the line of Izyum-Kremennaya-Rubezhnoye-Popasnaya-Gorlovka-Ugledar-Gulyai-Pole.

Since the vector of interests of the allied forces becomes obvious, it is logical to expect attempts by the Ukrainian side to maximise its grouping by replenishing manpower and weapons systems that come from NATO countries.

Stopping such attempts should become one of the key elements of tactics at this stage of the operation. The well-known range of weapons that the United States and satellites intend to supply to Kiev is capable of delivering sensitive strikes on the liberated territories, which will lead to civilian casualties, damage to civilian infrastructure, destabilisation of the socio-economic situation and create risks for the allied forces.

On April 21, during the fighting on the territory of Ukraine, an event was recorded that should be the beginning of systematic work in this direction. In Zaporozhye, an explosion was recorded in the area of the railway bridge across the Dnieper, which is confirmed by reports of local residents. Apparently, the cause of the explosion was a missile strike.

Such missile strikes need to be intensified. Railway bridges across the Dnieper River in the area of Zaporozhye, Dnepropetrovsk and other settlements above and below these strategic settlements along the river are among the priority objectives at this stage of Operation Z.

The lack of fuel due to the destruction of any large fuel depots by the Aerospace Forces and missile strikes leaves the only way for the Ukrainian side to transport large quantities of weapons and ammunition - by rail.

It is impossible not to recall the events of another "demilitarisation and denazification" that took place 79 years ago. In June 1943, two interconnected operations were launched to ensure victory in the Battle of Kursk – "Rail War" and "Concert".

The essence of the operations was to destroy the railway infrastructure in the occupied territory – it was possible to reduce transportation by 70%, as well as cause huge losses in locomotives, wagons, rails and sleepers, as well as cargo and manpower. According to the plan, it was planned to destroy 230,000 rails, which in general amounted to 1,330 kilometres of railway tracks. This plan was fulfilled almost 100%.

According to the Ministry of Defence on the morning of April 22, 140 aircraft, 106 helicopters, 520 unmanned aerial vehicles, 257 anti-aircraft missile systems, 2,448 tanks and other armoured combat vehicles, 271 multiple rocket launchers, 1,062 field artillery and mortar guns, as well as 2,289 units of special military vehicles have been destroyed since the beginning of Operation Z.

The dependence of the UAF on foreign supplies is becoming critical, which means it is necessary to prevent such supplies. It is worth considering that stopping the crossing of Western weapons across the Dnieper will help in the tactical task of defeating the "Donetsk" enemy group, but at the same time will ensure a high concentration of incoming weapons and ammunition on the right bank of the Dnieper, which will have to be dealt with in the third and subsequent phases of Operation Z.

An expedient solution would be to strike at all railway bridges throughout Ukraine, the location of which allows their use for transporting weapons, ammunition and manpower to the site of the "battle for Donbass" that has begun.