A second front against Russia or an improbable alliance with Russia?

    Why is the US going to Tajikistan?
    access_time24 May 2022
    print 24 5 2022
     

    A delegation from the United States led by Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs Donald Lu will visit Central Asian countries, including Tajikistan, from May 23 to 27. The delegation includes representatives of the Pentagon, the White House National Security Council, the International Development Finance Corporation and the US Agency for International Development.

    They are tasked with "strengthening US relations with the region and promoting joint efforts to create a more prosperous and secure Central Asia”. And annual bilateral consultations are planned in Tajikistan "to develop economic ties and strengthen cooperation in the field of security”.

    Earlier, US Ambassador to Tajikistan John Mark Pommersheim said that in 2022 Washington will become the "number one donor" for Tajikistan. Now it intends to "allocate more than $60 million to Tajikistan for security over the next two years”.

    According to the ambassador, as part of this assistance, Washington will supply Dushanbe with Puma reconnaissance drones to monitor the airspace in the border areas of the country. Pommersheim also said that the United States does not intend to create a military base in Tajikistan, but will only build a border post on the Tajik-Afghan border.

    The situation looks somewhat strange. The Americans' financing of Tajikistan passes through CENTCOM, a structure that is engaged in planning the operations of US troops in Central Asia, East Africa and the Middle East.

    Moreover, the activities of CENTCOM are unfolding in a CSTO member country. The 201st Russian military base and the optical-electronic complex "Okno" are stationed on the territory of Tajikistan. The latter is part of the space control system and acts in the interests of the Russian Aerospace Forces.

    The question arises: is Tajikistan a platform of intense rivalry for influence between Russia and the United States? Or are we talking about the undeclared, but joint activities of the two countries to ensure regional security?

    On the one hand, there is the fact of personal, politically trusting cooperation between the leaders of Russia and Tajikistan, Vladimir Putin and Emomali Rahmon. They manage to find solutions to the most difficult issues on the bilateral agenda.

    On the other hand, Moscow does not hear sharp complaints about Dushanbe because of its cooperation with Washington, even in the context of the development of the Ukrainian crisis and the confrontation between Russia and the West. Although many Russian experts believe that Tajikistan can become an "opportunist in the CSTO, like Turkey in NATO."

    Indeed, the Tajik card has become actively used in information planting both to create regional tension and in the context of US plans to open a "second front" against Russia.

    Such a project can be implemented only in two cases: either the Taliban or other radical Islamist groups from Afghanistan launch an armed invasion of Tajikistan, or internal shocks will be initiated there.

    However, the United States does not intend to return to the Afghan military helicopters and other aircraft delivered to Tajikistan after the Taliban seized power in Afghanistan. At the same time, Dushanbe has repeatedly requested assistance from the CSTO due to the deterioration of the situation in the Afghan border areas.

    Hong Kong’s Asia Times writes: "Tajikistan is the only country in the world on whose territory the motivated presence of Russia, the US, India and China is simultaneously indicated”, capable of stopping threats from Afghanistan. The United States is conducting joint military exercises with Tajikistan, and Russia is conducting them. The US supplies weapons, and Russia supplies.

    So the "Afghan game" has not fully played out yet, and the most improbable alliances are possible here — including tactical cooperation between Russia and the United States. But good reasons are needed for this, which is not being talked about yet.

    Elena Panina, Director of the RUSSTRAT Institute

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