"Disorder and chaos await us": Imitating an attack on Iran, Israel calculated its response
Large-scale military exercises "Chariot of Fire" are being held in Israel, where actions are being practiced on several fronts at once: in the air, at sea, on land and in cyberspace. Exercises of this scale are being held for the first time in five years.
According to one legend, during the exercises, a "large-scale attack on Iran and its infrastructure with the participation of the US Air Force" will be simulated. More precisely, according to the Asharq Al-Awsat newspaper, "American planes will have to practice refuelling Israeli fighter jets in the air”. This is presented as the Biden administration's readiness "to support radical measures against Iran if necessary”.
On the one hand, the United States seems to be demonstrating its readiness to seek a compromise at the Vienna talks on the Iranian nuclear program. On the other hand, they are following the Israeli Bennett government and its concept of an "independent forceful scenario" against Iran, which, by the way, the Netanyahu cabinet refused at the time.
The problem is that Washington, building relations with Tehran, continues to adhere to the tactics of "intimidation", which does not justify itself. And it's not just Iran. As The Jerusalem Post writes with reference to the director of the Israeli Defence Ministry, Amir Eshel, "we are preparing for a system-wide clash, and we need to proceed from the fact that a region-wide war may begin”.
But without the consent and support of the Americans, Israel will not dare to take such an action. And the United States, especially taking into account the Ukrainian crisis, is forced to reckon with the real shifts that are taking place in the Middle East. Their main point: despite Tel Aviv's desire to improve relations with some Arab countries, it fails to put together an anti-Iranian coalition.
Bennett is becoming a heavy weight on the feet of American diplomacy, which is losing its manoeuvrability in the region. This is on the surface. Therefore, many Arab media call the military exercises "Chariot of Fire" a "regular PR campaign", which focuses more on the topic of internal political fight in Israel itself.
In this regard, the US Congressional Research Service recognises that any use of military force by Washington may lead to a response from Iran and an escalation of the conflict.
By the way, the Israeli military has modelled its reaction to the significant destruction that can occur in major cities of Israel as a result of intense missile fire. The conclusion is disappointing. One of the officers of the army's rear command said that in addition to a potential retaliatory strike from Iran, especially from Hezbollah, "mass disorder and chaos may begin in the country's cities”.
As for Tehran, according to Pakistani analyst Omar Shahkar, it is "making tectonic steps, moving towards strategic partnership with Russia and China, driving US foreign policy into a state of shock, neutralising Washington's pressure at the Vienna talks on the nuclear program”.
Elena Panina, Director of the RUSSTRAT Institute