"The West is doomed to fail": China is learning from sanctions against Russia

    Beijing is conducting comprehensive "stress tests" to develop retaliatory measures in case of possible restrictions by the West against China
    access_time24 May 2022
    print 24 5 2022
     

    China is showing increased interest in Western sanctions against Russia, being confident that "the West will use the same policy against its economy”, writes The Guardian. Therefore, Beijing is conducting comprehensive "stress tests" to develop a response to this case.

    According to Tong Zhao, a senior researcher at the Beijing branch of the Carnegie Endowment, firstly, it is necessary to find out how stable China's economy is before possible restrictions. And secondly, to understand what the price will be for Beijing if it provides broader support to Russia in the conflict with the West.

    In the meantime, China follows the principles of neutrality in relation to the Ukrainian crisis and does not show initiative, except for the one related to protecting the interests of its own companies and its market. It can be assumed that this line will be continued. In any case, China is very cautious about helping our country to circumvent sanctions.

    At the same time, as we have already written, the other day the CCP organ "Huanqiu Shibao" published an article written by the well-known economic expert Gao Desheng with the revealing headline "The latest sanctions of the West will weaken its hegemony”. Let us recall some of his conclusions.

    1. The West does not have the experience and knowledge of applying sanctions against a major economic power with the extensive global ties that Russia possesses. Its oil and gas reserves, powerful defence industry and diversified exports call the success of sanctions into question.

    2. In the case of the transfer of Russian gold reserves for the "restoration of Ukraine", there will be an instant shutdown of gas for 100% of European consumers. And after the final completion of its, EU consumers will have to urgently launch Nord Stream 2, as well as renegotiate gas contracts at prices close to spot prices.

    3. Russia proves that it is capable of inflicting disproportionately large counter-damage to the West. The use of the ruble for debt settlements and gas payments has nullified the effect of sanctions, forcing the EU to engage in manipulations to circumvent them.

    4. There is a new factor - food shortage. Such different Western leaders as the US president, the UN Secretary General and the head of the Catholic Church do not get tired of talking about this. The problem is gaining urgency by leaps and bounds.

    5. It became obvious that Russia, having scarce strategic resources, is able not only to provide itself with energy, food and minerals, but also from these positions to influence the global production chains.

    Hence Gao Desheng's main conclusion: the West's attempts to respond with sanctions to Moscow's challenge are almost certainly doomed to failure. Moreover, the sanctions will not be monolithic, which will hit Western unity. And such a split is already happening.

    The alliance of the United States and Great Britain with the "nouveau riche" of NATO from Eastern Europe and the Baltic states is increasingly opposed by the Franco-German axis, which leads to the isolation of the latter and calls into question the future of the EU.

    There is even less unity with the United States outside the West. India doubles imports of Russian coal and oil, having agreed with Moscow on settlements in national currencies. The countries of the Middle East also maintain an independent position from the United States and the West.

    Finally, Beijing itself "resolutely opposes any illegal unilateral sanctions" and is not ready to sever the rapidly developing relations with Moscow because of them.

     

    Elena Panina, Director of the RUSSTRAT Institute

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