Britain blows up Tajikistan: what is behind the murder of Mamadbokir Mamadbokov?
Mamadbokir Mamadbokirov, who was often called the informal leader of this region, was killed in the Tajik Khorog of the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region (GBAO). The circumstances of his death are very contradictory.
Two theories are circulating. First: Mamadbokirov was killed by a sniper shot. Second: in a place known as the Slaughterhouse, some people suddenly drove up to Mamadbokov, who was walking alone, and opened fire to kill.
The statement of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Tajikistan states that Mamadbokirov was killed "as a result of internal showdowns of criminal groups." The regional Prosecutor's office has launched a preliminary investigation into the incident.
But this happened in a situation of aggravation of the situation in GBAO, where for the first time since spring, the protest movement, which, according to Dushanbe, was headed by Mamadbokirov, began to intensify. In this regard, the central authorities have launched a special operation. It is in this context that the emerging judgments about the deliberate liquidation of Mamadbokirov by the intelligence agencies of Tajikistan fit in.
However, there are indirect facts that allow us to assess the situation from a slightly different perspective.
Firstly, since March of this year, the number of publications devoted to the events in Tajikistan has increased in foreign publications.
Secondly, there are attempts to internationalise the GBAO protest movement according to the formula "region against the centre".
Thirdly, the intensification of the situation in Gorny Badakhshan was linked to rumours about the transit of power that had begun in the country. There were claims that "Tajikistan is waiting for what Kazakhstan experienced recently at the beginning of the year”.
Fourthly, military skirmishes on the border between Tajikistan and Afghanistan have become more frequent.
The Kyrgyz information website StanRadar links these events with the activities of British intelligence. It allegedly influences the position of the President of Tajikistan Emomali Rahmon on Afghanistan, with his intransigence towards the Taliban and putting forward strict demands for the creation of an inclusive government in Kabul. In this, according to the website, the details lie.
It is indicated that, allegedly in order to organise some kind of counterplay, the informal leaders of GBAO "sought contact with Moscow”, despite the fact that in Gorny Badakhshan itself, the influence of the Ismaili leader associated with the British intelligence Aga Khan is strong.
Therefore, the question arises: if there used to be some kind of consensus between Dushanbe and the Badakhshan Ismailis, then what is happening now? And isn't this connected with the possible training of local Ismailis?
It is worth paying attention to the British Council, which has actually covered the whole of Central Asia with its projects. It thoroughly studied the situation in the Fergana Valley and established contact with all possible informal groups of influence: from drug lords and nationalists to radicals.
In this case, the elimination of Mamadbokirov becomes a double-edged sword. On the one hand, it seems to be a proactive action. On the other hand, it is aimed at further aggravating the situation in this part of Tajikistan.
Gorny Badakhshan (or Pamir) is known for its inaccessibility and isolation from the rest of the country. The inhabitants of the mountainous region differ from the rest of the inhabitants of Tajikistan in languages, as well as religion: They profess Ismailism, the current of the Shiite branch of Islam, while most Tajiks are Sunnis.
The region has a difficult social structure. Officials appointed from Dushanbe rarely enjoy the trust of residents, informal leaders have great influence. Therefore, the desire of the country's authorities to control the situation in this region is quite understandable.
Moreover, there are external forces that want to blow up the situation in Central Asia in order to complicate the situation of Russia. Tajikistan, which is regarded by the West as one of the weakest links in the chain of states separating the region from Iran and Afghanistan, may now be under attack.
Elena Panina, Director of the RUSSTRAT Institute