IRGC as a stumbling block between the US and Iran
After the head of the Atomic Energy Organisation of Iran (AEOI) stated that "all discussions concerning technical topics at the Vienna talks on the resumption of the 2015 nuclear agreement (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action – JCPOA) have been completed and only political issues remain," Israel again rushed into the attack.
Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, in a telephone conversation with US President Joe Biden, asked the latter not to exclude the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) from the list of terrorist organisations. Earlier, representatives of the Republican Party and senior American politicians who served under former President Donald Trump also sounded the alarm about the possible decision of the head of the White House to exclude the IRGC from the list of foreign terrorist organisations (FTO).
Earlier, Iran disseminated information according to which it will refuse to sign a nuclear agreement if Washington does not fulfil the condition of excluding the IRGC from the list of terrorist organisations.
Biden's reaction to Israel's demarche is still unknown. Israel is now preparing for two possible scenarios for further developments. Firstly, Iran may decide to abandon its demand at the negotiating table in order to benefit from the lifting of sanctions, the rapid rise in world oil prices due to the Ukrainian crisis. In this case, it will be difficult for Israel to disrupt the US’ plans for an agreement with Iran. In this case, Israel will lose US support in the Middle East.
Secondly: Iran continues to insist on excluding the IRGC from the list of terrorists, which will complicate the signing of the agreement and lead to further confrontation between the parties. But in Tel Aviv, they are not quite sure that events will continue to develop according to the second scenario. There are voices claiming that "Israel's opposition to the nuclear deal with Iran and the maximum pressure campaign is not the best political strategy and will not slow down Tehran's aspirations to build a bomb, if indeed there is one."
The US also has options for action. To sign a nuclear agreement with Tehran and thus restore control over the situation, especially regarding restrictions on Iran's production of "fissile material". Ideally, Biden's team would like the subsequent negotiations to involve not only the countries that initially signed the agreement – Iran, the United States, Russia, China, Great Britain, France, Germany and the European Union, but also Iran's Arab neighbours, especially Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. This means a new turn in US policy in the region, which does not quite suit Israel.
Nevertheless, indirect signs indicate that Israeli leaders will be forced sooner or later to "swallow" the new US deal with Iran without taking serious action. However, they will insist on retaining the right to act if in the future "Iran is caught on something”. Much will depend on the closed agreements between Washington and Tehran and how they will solve the IRGC problem together. Or Tehran will wait to see if Biden will stay in the White House for a second term.
Elena Panina, Director of the RUSSTRAT Institute