Who is preparing a coup in Georgia
The ruling “Georgian Dream” party refused to consider the initiative of the opposition “United National Movement” (UNM – Saakashvili's party) to recognise the deaths of civilians in Bucha as an "act of genocide by Russia”. According to the chairman of the Georgian Dream, Irakli Kobakhidze, "such proposals are provocative and imply undermining the security of the country”. According to him, such "initiatives are aimed at one thing — to stir up a second front in Georgia”.
In response, the head of the parliamentary faction of the ruling Ukrainian party "Servant of the People" David Arahamiya said that he intends to appeal to Western countries to impose sanctions against Bidzina Ivanishvili, the former Prime Minister of Georgia and founder of “Georgian Dream”. Arakhamiya claims that the "oligarch" Ivanishvili is "closely connected with the Russian political elite and seeks to divide Georgians and Ukrainians for a decade to come”. Earlier, President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky sharply criticised Tbilisi for refusing to impose sanctions against Russia and banning the organised sending of Georgian volunteers to Ukraine to participate in hostilities.
In this regard, many Georgian experts suggest that the move of ex-President Mikheil Saakashvili from Ukraine to Georgia was connected with Kiev's plans to carry out a coup in Tbilisi "before the start of the war with Russia”. Indeed, at that moment the Georgian opposition was trying to undermine the political situation and destabilise the situation in the country. It didn't work out. Saakashvili was arrested.
Nevertheless, even while in prison, he has the opportunity to act as an initiator of political aggravation, to call for new actions with the aim of overthrowing "Georgian Dream". Saakashvili demands to hold early parliamentary elections, "move to an active phase of the fight for power," and the West openly raises the issue of the ex-president's release from prison and provides him with powerful informational support.
By the way, Georgian militants fighting on the side of Ukraine sent a letter to Zelensky asking him to help release Saakashvili from jail. For this purpose, a delegation of US senators and congressmen headed by Senator Chris Coons recently visited Tbilisi. He held "consultative talks" with the opposition to achieve the "strengthening of a powerful response against Russia because of its military operation in Ukraine”.
But, as opinion polls show, the opposition will not succeed in changing power in Tbilisi by parliamentary means. 22% of the surveyed citizens support “Georgian Dream” and only 7% support the opposition UNM. However, the "Dream" itself, focusing on integration into NATO and the EU, is holding on only due to the noticeable rejection of UNM by the majority of the country's population.
Therefore, theoretically, a "palace coup" with the support of Washington is possible in Georgia.
The Georgian State Security Service and Kobakhidze warn about this. He stated that "representatives of some opposition parties hired Peter Ackerman as a political consultant" to "prepare the situation in Georgia for the overthrow of the government”. Ackerman is a student of Gene Sharp, chairman and founder of the International Center on Nonviolent Conflict. In 1989, he advised protesters in China before the Tiananmen Square clashes, took part in the overthrow of Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic in 2000 and Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak in 2011.
Giga Bokeria, one of the leaders of the “European Georgia” opposition party, confirmed that the oppositionists met with Ackerman in Bakuriani and discussed "various methods of a nonviolent change of power”. Let's see what happens and whether the opposition will be able to drag Georgia into another war.
Elena Panina, Director of the RUSSTRAT Institute