Boomerang effect: the position of the "collective West" on Ukraine is not so clear

    The Europeans are choosing a pragmatic approach to resolving the issue of support for Ukraine
    access_time29 Apr 2022
    print 29 4 2022
     

    lena Panina, director of the Institute of International Political and Economic Strategies — RUSSTRAT, in her Federal News Agency column, discusses the events of the last few days, which, as expected, show that the position of the "collective West" regarding military support for Ukraine is far from so unambiguous. In her opinion, this primarily concerns the supply of weapons.

    Switzerland and not only…

    Just a few days ago, Switzerland refused a request to re-export ammunition for German Marder-type infantry fighting vehicles to Ukraine, the Sonntags Zeitung newspaper reports. The fact is that Geneva believes that such actions contradict the status of neutrality, which is one of the fundamental principles of a confederation, which it has adhered to for the last two centuries. In accordance with this status, she has no right not only to participate in wars, but also to support any of the participants in military conflicts.

    It is characteristic that, according to the representative of the Swiss Secretary of State for Economics, Germany has already sent two requests on this topic.

    "Both German requests were answered negatively with reference to Swiss neutrality and the criteria for mandatory refusal, in accordance with the law ‘On Military Materials’," a senior official said.

    It should be noted that Switzerland is far from alone in its unwillingness to "support" Ukraine in this way. Thus, the issue of arms supplies to Ukraine has caused fierce disputes in the coalition government of Bulgaria. The Socialist Party of Bulgaria has threatened to withdraw from the ruling coalition if the authorities approve the supply of weapons to Kiev. At the same time, the centre-right “Democratic Bulgaria” party also threatened to leave the coalition if, on the contrary, supplies did not follow. In order to avoid a political crisis, it was decided to postpone consideration of this issue indefinitely.

    According to Israeli Defence Minister Benny Gantz, quoted by the Jerusalem Post, his country also does not intend to sell weapons to Ukraine, and will instead provide humanitarian aid.

    The Japanese government, in response to Ukraine's request to provide anti-tank missiles and ammunition, refused. Formally, Japan justified its decision by saying that it was difficult to fulfil the request "from a legal point of view”, Kyodo news agency reports.

    I think several more European NATO member states may refuse to supply weapons to Ukraine in the near future.

    Of course, Brussels and Washington will put pressure on them, but not everyone shares radical anti-Russian sentiments ... Among the "irreconcilable" supporters of military supplies can be called Great Britain, the United States, Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia.

    At the same time, corruption factors influence the growth of arms supplies to Ukraine. Incoming equipment and weapons from foreign countries and private donors are mercilessly sold off. Everyone steals — from privates to generals. The Ministry of Defence of Ukraine is distinguished by large-scale theft: there they put the sale of incoming military aid from NATO on stream.

    We see a well-established system for reselling shipments of weapons arriving in Ukraine, including equipment, transport, armoured vehicles and lethal weapons, to third countries. This explains the demonisation of Russia with the use of numerous fakes and provocations and the deliberate prolongation of the conflict. The information veil covers the business.

    It is obvious that the situation suits the West, as it allows NATO member countries to get rid of outdated weapons, primarily Soviet-style. Recall that Vladimir Zelensky primarily accentuates the demands for Soviet-made tanks and aircraft that are "gathering dust in warehouses" in Eastern Europe.

    Outdated military equipment that is subject to modernisation or complete disposal is being sold to Ukraine — it would be naive to believe that this assistance is gratuitous.

    The West has a triple benefit from this: the sale of weapons, savings on the disposal of decommissioned objects and the write-off of funds allocated by the West itself to Ukraine for weapons and humanitarian aid. The arms trade is the most profitable business, and it is in vain to expect that Kiev officials, who are rapidly losing their positions, will give up the last opportunity to enrich themselves through armed conflict before fleeing.

    Nevertheless, a more pragmatic approach is gaining weight in Western countries. And they are ready to refuse to supply weapons to Ukraine.

    Sanctions impasse

    The split of the European ruling elites in the issue of arms supplies to Kiev was quite predictable and is only part of the socio-economic impasse that European countries have fallen into thanks to the support of new and new packages of anti-Russian sanctions regularly reproduced by the United States and Brussels.

    The "boomerang effect" in the near future may provoke active social discontent and open protests not only in peripheral countries such as Bulgaria, but also in Germany and the UK. There are very good reasons for such forecasts.

    According to one of the most famous British newspapers, in the near future the UK economy will lose about £6.2 billion ($7.96 billion) due to sanctions against Russia. According to the British government, last year alone the total value of exports of embargoed goods from the UK to Russia amounted to £775.9 million, which is 27.9% of all British exports to Russia last year. It is specified that the losses of the computer industry alone will amount to £4.1 million, and the losses of companies exporting goods and oil processing technologies will amount to £6.7 million.

    Approximately the same pattern is observed in Germany. For example, former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder in an interview with the New York Times said that all attempts at politically and economically isolating Russia are doomed to failure. The influential politician believes that his country is in dire need of Russian raw materials. And this applies not only to energy carriers, but also to a number of other equally important items for the German industry, for example, rare earth metals.

    The Bundesbank estimates that the imposition of an embargo on energy imports from Russia will cost Berlin €180 billion this year alone. Inflation, which is already at a maximum of 7.3% in 40 years, will accelerate to 8.8%. Thus, the country's economy may find itself in one of the largest recessions since the crisis of the Western countries of the early 90s.

    The destruction of the myth

    It is obvious that, despite the anti-Russian rhetoric, socio-economic contradictions within European countries will worsen. Of course, Washington's pressure matters. However, in the United States itself, not everything is going well, both from an economic and political point of view. According to the latest opinion polls, the level of support for the policy of the White House is extremely low. It can be assumed that this is a very alarming signal, indicating possible large-scale protest actions. Most likely, the Joe Biden administration will be forced to shift the focus from the Ukrainian agenda to the adoption of urgent economic and social measures to normalise the domestic political situation.

    To date, it is clear that the further escalation of anti-Russian rhetoric, as well as the active "pumping" of Ukraine with weapons, only strengthen the destruction of the formed myth of European unity. The Europeans come to the conclusion that it is pointless to try to speak with Russia in the language of threats and blackmail. It is necessary to return to pragmatics and a rational approach. Otherwise, the "boomerang effect" threatens a replacement of political elites and social shocks…

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