Ankara's expectations from the process of normalising relations between Turkey & Armenia

On December 30, 2021, Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu announced live on 24 TV that positive steps will be taken to normalise relations with Armenia. Çavuşoğlu also said that with the mediation of Russia, a proposal was received to appoint a special representative for the normalisation of relations with Armenia and that representatives were appointed.

During the conversation, he also said that Russia would like to host them. At the annual reporting meeting, the Minister noted that: "Charter flights will also be launched soon. It is necessary to define a roadmap by establishing direct contact, including for bilateral trips. In this process, it is important to coordinate this with Azerbaijan." In other words, before talking about Russia and Azerbaijan, let's emphasise two important points: the importance of Moscow's role in this interaction, and Turkey's attention to Azerbaijan's position in this process.

The Armenian government announced that from January 1 it will lift the embargo on the import of Turkish goods imposed in the country since December 2020 in connection with Turkey's support for Azerbaijan in the war in Nagorno-Karabakh.

Conservative reflexes in 30 years of ups and downs

The Armenian Ministry of Economy posted a message on its Facebook account that "it was decided not to extend the embargo on the import of Turkish goods into the country”. The rapprochement of the two countries is taking place just in time for the 30th anniversary of the collapse of the Soviet Union and the beginning of relations between the two countries. The interrupted diplomatic relations between Ankara and Yerevan have experienced many ups and downs for 30 years. Small or critical steps, which were taken earlier, were canceled, sometimes after the reaction of third countries or nationalists inside the country.

In 2007, Abdullah Gül became the President of Turkey. On February 19, 2008, Serzh Sargsyan was elected President of Armenia. At a time when accusations of "fraud" were raining down on Sargsyan, protests against the election results continued and many heads of state were waiting for the situation to be adjusted in order to send their congratulations, Abdullah Gül took the opportunity to send a letter to Sargsyan that was different from traditional congratulations. He strongly supported the development of bilateral relations.

At the same time, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who held the post of Prime Minister at that time, and Foreign Minister Ali Babacan also sent letters of good intentions to their Armenian colleagues. Sargsyan, for his part, reacted positively to the letters from the new Ankara administration and announced that he would invite Abdullah Gül to the match between the Armenian and Turkish national football teams to be held in Yerevan. And in the meantime, legal proceedings continued against those who used the term "genocide" for the events of 1915 in Turkey; more and more reports were arriving about the fact that state security units were involved in the murder of Armenian journalist Hrant Dink.

Despite the reaction of the nationalist circles of both countries, after mutual positive statements that lasted for several months, on September 6, 2008, the Turkish President arrived in Yerevan for the first time. During this one-day visit, which was a turning point, President Abdullah Gül met with Sargsyan at the presidential palace after the match and later he described these negotiations as "constructive and positive".

The speed gained in bilateral relations has encountered an obstacle from Baku

15 years after this visit, serious speed was gained in bilateral relations. Along with the fact that Turkey has fully opened Turkish airspace to Armenian aircraft, diplomats of both countries in foreign missions began to accept each other's invitations.

The foreign ministers of the two countries have met 6 times during several months within the framework of international meetings. Meanwhile, Turkey, not wanting to spoil the close bilateral relations with Azerbaijan, also sought to create a trilateral format of Azerbaijan-Armenia-Turkey meetings.

In September 2008, a non-summit trilateral meeting was held during the sessions of the United Nations General Assembly. In January 2009, Ilham Aliyev, Erdogan and Armenian Foreign Minister Nalbandyan posed for cameras together at the Davos summit. However, Azerbaijan did not give a positive response to further attempts.

Against the background of all that was going on, the American, Turkish and Armenian media also published news reflecting a positive atmosphere, and wrote in these news some statements about the fact that borders will open soon and that diplomatic relations will be established in the near future.

These statements brought to the surface the reaction of Baku, which until that day had remained silent in front of the public. It came to the point that Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev refused to come to Turkey, where many world leaders gathered at the meeting of the Alliance of Civilisations on April 6-7, 2009. The US President of that period, Barack Obama, who "gladly followed" the rapprochement between Yerevan and Ankara, promised to meet with Aliyev one-on-one if he will come to Turkey for a meeting, but this promise did not affect the decision made by Aliyev.

On April 9, 2009, a statement was received from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Azerbaijan stating that Azerbaijan does not accept the opening of the Turkish-Armenian border. In this situation, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of that period, Ali Babacan, went on a visit to Yerevan.

After the visit, his Armenian counterpart Nalbandyan said that "they noted progress on the issue of opening borders, but no final agreement was reached." Finally, on April 22, 2009, the Ministries of Foreign Affairs of Turkey, Armenia and Switzerland issued a joint statement and announced that both countries "agreed on a comprehensive basis and defined a roadmap for normalisation."

However, the details of the roadmap were not disclosed. The tone of criticism in the Azerbaijani press became so sharp that even the headline "Turkey sells Karabakh" was printed. And Baku made an attempt to raise the price of natural gas, which it sells to Turkey through SOCAR (the State Oil Company of the Republic of Azerbaijan).

Erdogan's pragmatism: his rejection of everything achieved

In this regard, less than a month after the joint statement, Prime Minister of that period Tayyip Erdogan made statements contradicting everything that was achieved during his visit to Baku on May 14, 2009. In his speech in the Azerbaijani parliament, he said: "Recently, the atmosphere of brotherhood has been blackened with false news, as if trying to create a storm in a teapot. After the complete occupation of Nagorno-Karabakh by Armenia, the doors became closed. The doors will open only when this stops, we will not take a step until we agree on this issue with our Azerbaijani brothers." ​​

In response to these words, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said that "he no longer doubts it”, and thanked Erdogan. After that, nationalist parties in the Armenian parliament criticised the protocols on improving relations. Demonstrations and protests took place in various cities. Sarkisian tried to calm the unrest by saying that Turkey would become their major trading partner.

Then, starting by Paris, he went on trips abroad to convince the diaspora. During these trips, he encountered the slogans "traitor". The strongest reaction came from the Constitutional Court of Armenia (CCA). The Court made a statement that "it is necessary to demand compensation for the victims of the genocide as well”. This statement was significant, since all types of international agreements in Armenia must be approved by the CCA before being sent to parliament.

"A new page in Turkish-Armenian relations"

In September 2020, a critically important event occurred in terms of one of the reasons that led to the stalling of the steps taken so far. Clashes began in Nagorno-Karabakh. In this war, Turkey provided full support to Azerbaijan both in terms of the defence industry and in terms of diplomacy.

On November 9, 2020, an agreement was signed. Armenia retreated from seven districts around Nagorno-Karabakh, and Russia began to perform the function of peacekeeping forces in Nagorno-Karabakh. A month after this event, President Erdogan made a statement that "it is possible to open a new page in Turkish-Armenian relations”. He also said that they had agreed with Aliyev on this issue.

Finally, in December 2021, Turkey and Armenia appointed representatives to hold direct talks. Former Ambassador to Washington Serdar Kılıç was appointed as a representative from Turkey and Armenia chose Deputy Chairman of the National Assembly Ruben Rubinyan as its representative.

Negotiations in Moscow

The special representatives appointed by Turkey and Armenia held their first meeting in Moscow on January 14. In a written statement after the meeting, the Turkish Foreign Ministry said that an agreement had been reached to continue negotiations without preconditions, the place and date of the second meeting will be determined separately. In the statement made by Armenia, the hope was expressed for the establishment of diplomatic relations with Turkey following the results of the negotiations, which will be held "without preconditions”. Ankara and Yerevan reacted to the negotiations with cautious optimism.  

The Special Representatives agreed to conduct the normalisation process through flexible delegations, the composition of which may vary depending on the content and scope of the negotiations. Along with the establishment of diplomatic relations, the opening of borders, the resumption of railway and automobile transport lines and the establishment of trade relations were identified as important topics of the normalisation process.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, in his speech to the Ambassadors of the European Union (EU), whom he received on January 13, said:

"We have entered a new era in the Caucasus. After this event, we launched the process of normalising relations with Armenia. In order for the steps taken to bring the expected results, Armenia should properly use the opportunity to establish peace in the region and establish positive relations with Azerbaijan."

The international community has also supported these initiatives. His words were also positively received primarily by the United States, as well as by EU countries and Russia.

The sides included some confidence-building measures on the agenda before the start of the talks in Moscow, so that the normalisation process could begin in a healthier environment, and to enlist the support of the society of both countries. It became known that Istanbul-Yerevan charter flights will be launched from February 2, as Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu announced in December, and that in this regard, Pegasus and Flyone will mutually operate direct flights. In a statement made in early January, Armenia announced the lifting of the embargo on Turkish goods.

The complexity of the process: political interests and social realities

The analysis carried out by Ankara and Yerevan shows that the process will go down a difficult path, and that in order to fully normalise relations, the parties must overcome both internal and external factors. The main difficulty of this process is the difference in the interpretation of the events of 1915 by the Turkish and Armenian public and the fact that they have been in deep confrontation for decades. The parties should prioritise areas suitable for cooperation, such as the economy, trade and transport, rather than issues on which they have a categorical position.

Recently, deep gaps have formed in Turkey's domestic policy. Both the political and economic crisis have significantly worsened. On the sidelines of Ankara, it is rumoured that Erdogan is even considering the possibility of war. In other words, this process initiated between Ankara and Yerevan, for internal political reasons, again depends on the pragmatic approach of Erdogan and his nationalist partner Bahçeli.

Moreover, some key Western countries are seriously concerned that Turkey may start a new war in coordination with Azerbaijan. They believe that Erdogan will fiercely gamble on nationalism to win the election, and that he will definitely unleash a war in some nearby area.

In this sense, quite cogent doubts are being sounded that Pashinyan's government will convince its people. The issue of Zangezur is at the centre of the dialogue, but at the same time, it is also one of Pashinyan's weakest points. It can be assumed that Ankara will force Yerevan to contact Baku, and this may not be so difficult, in comparison with the topic of opening a trade corridor in Zangezur.

Although the lifting of the embargo on Turkish goods by Armenia and the beginning of civil air traffic between the two countries are certainly encouraging steps as measures to reduce this risk. It would also be a good development to provide an opportunity for nearby municipalities and local residents on both sides of the border to voice their expectations on the issue of cross-border trade.