Withdrawal from Kiev: the calm before the storm

As of April 4, 2022, the development of Operation Z has acquired very interesting features, proving that in a modern conflict, the information component is no less important than military successes. Against the background of the indisputable advantage of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in high-precision weapons and, in general, air control, the Kiev regime is trying to compensate for the lack of military successes with a massive information campaign.

Of course, the provocation of Ukrainian nationalists in Bucha near Kiev came to the fore, where an attempt - unconvincing for professionals - to accuse Z units of carrying out unprovoked attacks on civilians took place. The provocation was clearly addressed to an external observer, its obvious task was to create a pretext for new economic strikes against Russia and justify the maximum possible military support for Ukraine.

Despite the prepared ground – the provocation was clearly coordinated at the international level, many Western media synchronously came out with stereotypical headlines that used the effect of the consonance of "Bucha" and "butcher" - the effect was obviously insufficient.

Outside of the politicum, public opinion in Western countries and especially in the rest of the world has not seriously moved. The Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation and independent analysts prepared a number of analyses that irrefutably proved the complete inconsistency of the Ukrainian side's version. Suffice it to mention that the withdrawal of Russian troops from the territory of Bucha and Gostomel took place on March 30, the next day the mayor of the city Anatoly Fedoruk in his video message confirmed that there was no Russian military in the city, but did not say a single word about alleged mass murder.

"Dozens of bodies on the streets of the city" were found only on the fourth day of Bucha's stay under the control of the Kiev regime. Moreover, for some reason, the relatives of dead were not found, and they all have to be buried in mass graves. The latter circumstance drew the attention of the leader of the Eurosceptic coalition "Confederation" in the Polish parliament, Janusz Korwin-Mikke.

Of particular concern, the Ministry of Defence emphasises, is the fact that all the bodies of people whose images were published by the Kiev regime, after at least four days, have not become rigid, do not have characteristic postmortem lividity, and blood in the wounds was incoagulated.

Nevertheless, the launched information pretext will obviously be worked out – the Western media are already full of headlines like "massacre in Bucha". At the same time, quite specific wishes sound, for example, the Washington Post is interested in whether Europe is ready to continue buying gas from Russia in connection with the incident.

To where and why

From a military point of view, the main question remains – where exactly did the Russian military withdraw to? The most obvious directions are two, Kharkov and Donetsk.

The plans of the Russian General Staff do not suffer from excessive evidence, which is certainly a good sign. Depending on the plan of the operation, the released reserves can be used both for the final blocking of Kharkov and for reinforcing the group conducting the cleansing of Mariupol. The next task of which, apparently, will be a strike on the group of Ukrainian armed formations entrenched between Donetsk, Lugansk and Kharkov.

It is logical that the withdrawal of the Z units from Kiev will give some freedom to the Ukrainian formations concentrated for the defence of the Ukrainian capital. For its part, the Kiev regime will certainly try to use the released reserves as a counterweight to Russian troops, regardless of where they appear again.

Both variants of the use of Z units that have departed from Kiev can be successful only if there is a prevention of the strengthening of existing threats from the released Ukrainian units near Kiev. Accordingly, we should expect further intensification of strikes on the military infrastructure of Ukraine - and, most likely, the infrastructure of "dual" purpose.

The first precedent of this kind was the strikes on the Lozovaya (Kharkov region) and Pavlograd (Dnepropetrovsk region) railway stations, during which armoured vehicles, ammunition and fuel tanks sent to strengthen the grouping of Ukrainian troops in Donbass were destroyed.

In addition, the Kremenchug refinery, the fuel storage facility in Odessa and other similar facilities were subjected to missile strikes.

Conclusions were clearly drawn from the successful raid of Ukrainian helicopters on Belgorod, during which a blow was struck at the fuel storage. As a result of the April 3 strike on the Balovnoye airfield, in the suburbs of Nikolaev, the destruction of three helicopters of the Ukrainian Armed Forces was confirmed.

In total, 125 aircraft, 91 helicopters, 394 unmanned aerial vehicles, 226 anti-aircraft missile systems, 1,948 tanks and other armoured combat vehicles, 212 multiple rocket launchers, 838 field artillery and mortar guns, as well as 1,842 units of special military vehicles have been destroyed since the beginning of the special military operation.

With regard to Mariupol itself, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation offered the units of the UAF and mercenaries located in the city to surrender, laying down their weapons from 6:00 in the morning and entering the territories controlled by Kiev. At a minimum, a significant part of the encircled Ukrainian group can heed this recommendation – the surrender of 267 Ukrainian marines from the 503rd battalion (assigned to the 36th Naval Infantry Battalion) has been confirmed.

Based on the known information – it is not yet known about the proposals to surrender to the garrison that has settled in Kharkov – it can be expected that the Z units that have left the suburbs of Kiev will contribute to the cleansing of Mariupol. In the event that the proposal to lay down arms will, in general, be ignored by the Ukrainian side.